757
FXUS63 KFSD 250328
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1028 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue throughout the period, with highs
generally in the 70s to 80s and lows in the 50s.

- Breezy southerly winds and lowering relative humidity levels could
result in elevated fire danger west of the James River Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Quiet conditions continue to prevail as a cu field blossoms across
the region, with latest observations showing northwesterly winds and
temperatures in the 70s. While gusts up to 25 MPH remain possible
through the afternoon, should see gusts quickly diminish as we
approach sunset, giving way to light and variable winds overnight.
With the aid of radiational cooling, have lows falling into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Upper level ridging builds across the region Wednesday, keeping
conditions dry through mid-week. This will also allow temperatures
to rise back into the upper 70s to low 80s. Though winds look to
remain light Wednesday, should see gusts increase Thursday,
especially in areas west of I-29. Currently have gusts between 20 to
30 MPH, with some areas across south-central South Dakota peaking
into the lower 30s. Given the lack of appreciable moisture and
lowering relative humidity levels, can`t rule out the possibility of
seeing elevated fire danger west of the James River. Thus, want to
remind folks to be careful with any activity that may cause a spark
as wildfires can spread quickly in these conditions. Otherwise, look
for lows in the 50s to prevail through mid-week.

Tropical Storm Helene moves further inland across the Gulf States
Friday, causing the upper level flow to become quasi zonal across
our area heading into the weekend. This system will then slowly
meander northward across the Ohio Valley as a transitions to a
tropical depression. If the track of the upper level low holds,
should see dry conditions continue across our area. In regard to
temperatures, expect afternoon highs in the lower 80s to gradually
dip into the mid to upper 70s by Monday. Lows in the 50s will still
remain common during this time.

Medium range guidance still varies on the evolution of another
shortwave trough early next week. Cluster analysis also shows
similar variance with the same wave. However, the most favored
cluster shows the wave amplifying east of the forecast area. This is
further supported by the ensembles which again keep low
probabilities of a 10-30% chance for exceeding a hundredth of an
inch for next Monday and Tuesday. All this to say that mostly dry
conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR expected throughout the period, though some patchy shallow fog
cannot be ruled out. Winds will remain calm and variable into
Wednesday, with a couple hours where wind direction doesn`t change
much by the late morning and early afternoon hours. However, winds
will become variable again into the evening hours as they further
turn to become out of the south-southeast early overnight into
Thursday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...APT