703
FXUS64 KFWD 232312
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
612 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Our welcomed early fall rain event is done for now but more rain
is possible over the next few days. Most counties across the CWA saw
measurable rainfall and some received totals in excess of 2
inches. We have just issued a Public Information Statement with
rainfall totals for this event.

Post-frontal clouds are finally beginning to scatter out late
this afternoon and this trend will continue through the evening.
Although today was much cooler than the weekend, the air behind
the weak cold front is not much drier, so it still feels a bit
warm and humid.

The short term portion of the forecast is in good shape overall
and the discussion below is still valid. We will make some cloud
and wind adjustments based on current trends.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday/

A slow-moving cold front is currently draped along a Comanche-Fort
worth-Gainesville line but isn`t particularly discernible outside
of a weak northwest wind shift and a subtle drop in temperatures
and dew points behind the front. Ongoing showers continue to
weaken early this afternoon and will gradually diminish over the
next couple of hours or so, with a lull in rain chances this
evening into the overnight period. Clouds have started to scatter
out across our northeast zones, with the rest of the forecast
area expected to see some clearing by this evening. The lingering
clouds will keep temperatures confined to the mid 70s to low 80s
across most of the area, with some spots reaching into the upper
80s to low 90s across Central Texas where less cloud cover is
expected through the afternoon.

While most of tonight will be quiet and rain-free, another weak
shortwave trough will skirt the Southern Plains, providing enough
ascent for scattered showers and storms to develop late tonight
into early Tuesday morning near the slow-moving front. Have kept
PoPs confined to areas south of I-20, and coverage should be far
less than what we saw this morning. The shortwave will gently
usher the front through the remainder of the forecast area.
However, the front will be quite washed out by the time this
occurs. As a result, temperatures will rebound into the mid to
upper 80s areawide tomorrow. Most of the morning showers and
storms should dissipate by late morning or midday, but isolated
activity may linger across Central Texas through the afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 342 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Over Tuesday evening, a digging shortwave disturbance will eject
southward into Missouri from the main longwave trough to our east
and eventually amplify into a cut-off low near the Ark-La-Tex by
Wednesday morning. The movement of this upper low will allow
additional showers and storms to initially form across North
Texas, but eventually move south across the region midweek. Severe
weather is not expected with any midweek activity. A short lull
in precipitation is expected on Thursday as North and Central
Texas become situated on the subsident back-side of the eastward-
moving low. Temperatures over mid-late week will remain relatively
seasonal, if not slightly-below normal as we get an influx of
low-level CAA on the backside of the aforementioned low. Morning
lows in the 50s/60s and afternoon highs in the 80s are expected
each day through late week/early weekend.

Low rain chances will return to our eastern North Texas counties
on Friday as the cut-off low shifts back westward in response to
the landfall and movement of PTC 9 late Thursday into Friday. As
PTC 9 makes landfall in Florida, model guidance continues to show
both lows moving in tandem around a shared center, with a slight
westward retrograde of the larger cut-off low. The reason behind
this "retrograde" is the potential for the Fujiwhara Effect to
occur atop the SE CONUS. The Fujiwhara Effect is when two cyclones
move close enough to each other that they begin to rotate around
a shared center point. Eventually, PTC 9 will be snuffed out
while the Ark-La-Tex cut-off low remains through the end of the
week, keeping low rain chances present for our east and
northeastern zones into Saturday morning.

Eventually, the cut-off low will exit the region late next weekend
and become enveloped within the flow of another NW-SE moving upper
level trough. In response, mid-level ridging will build in across
North and Central Texas. Temperatures will gradually warm, with
afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s by next Monday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Overall, flying conditions will continue to improve this evening
with few to scattered clouds between 2000 - 3000 ft and no
additional storms expected.

There is still potential for a few showers and storms south of
I-20 overnight, just north of the front. Any storms that develop
could cause some traffic impacts at the southern cornerposts as
well as at the Waco terminal. However, coverage should be limited
and any storms that do develop will weaken/dissipate shortly
after sunrise. Locations south of the I-20 corridor will also have
the best potential for MVFR stratus early Tuesday morning.

One thing that the models have not been picking up on but
could cause some brief issues Tuesday morning is the development
of patchy fog due to a moist ground and light wind. We will leave
it out of the forecast for now but will continue to monitor
trends this evening/overnight.

A west to northwest wind tonight will gradually become southwest
to south on Tuesday at speeds at or below 8 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  88  68  84  64 /  10   5  40  10   0
Waco                68  87  66  86  62 /  30  30  30  20   0
Paris               63  87  63  83  60 /   5   0  40  10   5
Denton              61  89  64  85  60 /   5   5  40  10   5
McKinney            63  89  65  85  60 /   5   5  40  10   0
Dallas              67  89  68  86  63 /  10  10  40  10   0
Terrell             66  89  65  85  60 /  20  10  30  10   0
Corsicana           69  89  67  86  63 /  30  30  20  20   0
Temple              68  89  66  89  61 /  30  30  30  20   0
Mineral Wells       61  89  64  85  59 /  20  10  40  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$