Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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843 FXUS64 KFWD 182328 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 628 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ A strengthening ridge aloft will keep above-normal temperatures and rain-free conditions in place through the end of the work week. Lows in the lower to middle 70s tonight followed by highs in the mid to upper 90s on Thursday will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for North Texas, and 5 to 10 degrees above normal for Central Texas. Dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s will produce heat index values of 100 to 105 Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, a surface ridge near the lower Mississippi River valley and a front in the Texas Panhandle will keep our winds out of the south to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ /Thursday Evening Through Early Next Week/ Abnormal heat will continue into the weekend, with the hottest temperatures expected to occur on Friday. Fortunately, it doesn`t look like our record high temperatures for our climate sites (DFW, Waco, and Killeen) will fall, though temperatures will be within a few degrees of record values. Similar to the previous forecasts, sided with slightly warmer guidance as the NBM continues to be a bit too low, with high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s Friday afternoon. While only a handful of locations will reach triple digits, high humidity will send heat index values above 100 degrees for most locations. Some locations will see heat index values above 105 degrees, but we do not anticipate the need for a Heat Advisory as criteria will only be met for a single day. Despite this, ensure you`re practicing heat safety as the summer-like heat persists. On Saturday, an upper low will swing from the Four Corners Region into the Central Plains. A slight increase in cloud cover will result in a subtle decrease in temperatures Saturday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper low will drag a cold front through much of the Plains as it moves east over the weekend, but it`s still rather uncertain whether this front will reach our forecast area. The NBM is not advertising any frontal passage at this time; however, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring this front through North and Central Texas sometime Sunday or Monday. Sided closely with NBM for now, but some adjustments may be needed as confidence increases over the next day or two. Low rain chances are currently forecast for western North and Central Texas Sunday evening associated with convection near the front to our west. However, PoPs may need to be expanded and increased if confidence in FROPA for our area increases. Beyond this weekend, there is considerable uncertainty in what next week will entail. However, it appears temperatures will be closer to normal values. Some guidance hints at a cold front towards the middle of the week, with low chances for showers and storms returning around the same time. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Another relatively tranquil period of aviation weather can be expected as high pressure aloft continues to strengthen. VFR should continue through Thursday evening along with south to southeast winds of 5 to 10 kt, occasionally gusting to 15-20kt. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 75 98 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 70 93 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 74 97 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 74 97 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 77 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 73 98 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 74 98 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 97 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$