402
FXUS64 KFWD 111807
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
107 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Wednesday/

A decaying complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move
east/southeast. While this activity will gradually dissipate over
the next few hours, a reinvigoration of showers and storms is
expected along any outflow boundaries through the afternoon as
surface heating results in further destabilization. Strong
subsidence will keep much of the Metroplex and areas further west
quiet, with additional development likely concentrated in
northern parts of the Metroplex and eastern North Texas, as well
as portions of Central Texas. Coverage should remain fairly
scattered with this afternoon`s activity, and the severe threat
will be low given marginal deep-layer shear. However, we can`t
rule out an isolated strong or marginally severe storm capable of
producing 1" hail and strong wind gusts. The best potential for an
isolated severe storm will be across Central Texas.

Since much of the afternoon convection will be diurnally-driven,
showers and storms will wane near sunset with the loss of daytime
heating. A brief lull is expected overnight, but with an upper low
remaining overhead, additional scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop late tonight and continue through Wednesday
morning. While most of this activity will remain across Central
Texas, latest CAMs are depicting some development further north
(including the Metroplex). Storm chances will be lower as we head
into Wednesday afternoon, but we can`t rule out a few additional
diurnally-driven showers and storms for the remainder of the day.
10% PoPs were introduced for most of the area to reflect this
potential. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a bit warmer than today
but still near-average by mid-June standards, with afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 215 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Monday/

Mid level ridging will build into the Southern Plains through the
latter half of the week leading to a generally tranquil period
with temperatures warming back into the mid 90s each afternoon.
Dewpoints should mix into the low/mid 60s Thursday through
Saturday which will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees. Otherwise, a slow moving upper low off the
California coast will spread across the Four Corners region and
into the Central Plains over the weekend. While this will put a
dent in the building ridge, the stronger forcing will remain well
to our north with little chances for additional precipitation.

As mid level ridging builds over the southeast U.S. early next
week, modest tropical easterly flow will send a slug of 2.5"+ PWs
westward across the Gulf tied to an inverted mid level trough.
This feature will likely spread into southeast Texas late Monday
and could result in an uptick of scattered tropical showers and
thunderstorms that may make it into parts of our east and
southeast counties. We`ll continue to monitor this feature over
the coming days.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

A decaying complex of storms continues to move east and should
dissipate over the next few hours across North Texas. Additional
showers and storms are expected to develop along any lingering
outflow boundaries this afternoon, but this activity is expected
to remain north and east of the terminals. Confidence is not
particularly high with precisely where storms will develop, but
we`ll be monitoring trends closely and will adjust the TAF as
necessary. The potential for additional development of showers and
storms across Central Texas warranted maintaining VCTS in the
KACT TAF through the evening.

We`ll have to monitor for another round of convection late tonight
into Wednesday morning. At this time, most of the convection is
expected to remain across Central Texas, but there are some
indications of development further north (including D10). VCTS was
introduced to the KACT TAF late tonight, but confidence was too
low to include in the D10 TAFs at this time.

MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely again Wednesday morning, and MVFR
ceilings are now advertised in the KACT TAF. Held off on including
a mention in the D10 TAFs for now given uncertainty is high.
Otherwise, light E to SE winds near 5-7 knots or less will
continue through the period, outside of any nearby thunderstorms.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  71  90  71  93 /  60  30  10   0   0
Waco                87  71  88  70  90 /  60  30  30   0   0
Paris               86  65  88  65  91 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              83  68  89  68  93 /  60  30  10   0   0
McKinney            84  68  89  68  92 /  30  20  10   0   0
Dallas              85  71  89  71  93 /  50  30  10   0   0
Terrell             85  68  89  67  91 /  30  20  10   0   0
Corsicana           86  72  89  70  92 /  30  30  20   0   0
Temple              88  71  89  70  92 /  50  30  30   0   0
Mineral Wells       82  69  89  69  93 /  70  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$