740
FXUS64 KFWD 041108
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The previously mentioned storms in Oklahoma have grown upscale
into a MCS over the last several hours and are currently moving
across eastern North Texas. While the line has weakened below
severe limits, we`ll still need to watch for any additional
intensification as it continues south. Gusty winds and heavy
rain are the primary threats with this activity.

A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 1 PM to 8 PM this afternoon
for portions of Central Texas due to peak heat indices up to 109
degrees.

No major changes were made to the forecast aside from refining
PoPs for this morning and for the expected MCS tonight into
Wednesday morning. Therefore the discussion below remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

The quiet that North and Central Texas has observed over the last
few hours will eventually be disrupted. To our north, showers and
storms have blossomed across Oklahoma just south of a instability
gradient as a shortwave upper low moves across southeastern Kansas.
The cluster should begin to eventually move south/southeast
toward the Red River, impacting areas generally near and east of
I-35 through the morning hours. Strong to severe storms will be
possible, with a primary threat of damaging winds and secondary
threat of hail. Instances of heavy rain may re- aggravate flooding
in already saturated spots. While the MCS should move out of the
region in the early afternoon, lingering isolated convection will
be possible for an additional few hours. We`ll see a lull in
activity late this afternoon, with afternoon highs peaking in the
80s and 80s. Persistently increased humidity will push afternoon
heat index values above ambient temperatures, up to near 100-108
degrees. While the majority of the I-35 corridor will "reach
criteria" today, our Heat Advisory criteria is a 2 day window. As
such, we will only be issuing a Heat Advisory for portions of
Central Texas. Nonetheless, it will feel quite hot this first week
of June, so make sure to practice heat safety when out and about!

Overnight into Wednesday, a very rinse-wash-repeat scenario is
expected as another cluster of storms is expected to move south
across Oklahoma and through North and Central Texas once again.
Strong to severe storms capable of primarily large hail and
damaging winds will be possible as the cluster moves across our
eastern zones. Flooding will once again be an additional concern,
so make sure to keep up with the forecast and road conditions. For
those that do not see storms (mainly west of I-35), Wednesday will
be hot and humid with highs in the low-mid 90s. While Heat
Advisory criteria will be hit across portions of Central Texas,
there is better "bust potential" regarding location of storms and
the associated cold pools. Have foregone issuing any heat product
for Wednesday at this time, but will need to be watched in future
issuances.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/
/Thursday Onward/

High pressure should build into the region Wednesday night as a
mid-level ridge noses in from the west. Our forecast area should
finally experience a thunderstorm-free day Thursday, which would
be the first since May 20th. Unfortunately, the lack of rain also
means temperatures will rebound into the mid-upper 90s Thursday
afternoon. Heat index values will be higher, but generally below
our Heat Advisory criteria.

The high pressure will be short-lived as a backdoor cold front
moves into North Texas Friday. Another MCS should develop along
the front in Oklahoma late Thursday, but subtle mid-level ridging
over our area only allows for a 20% chance of it moving south of
the Red River Friday morning. As the front sags into our forecast
area Friday, it should provide enough lift to develop isolated to
scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Coarse global ensemble
data struggled to resolve the location of the front and/or failed
to initiate convection along the boundary, therefore QPF guidance
is resulting in anomalously low PoPs from the NBM. We have added
30% PoPs across the central part of our forecast area, or about 50
miles north and south of where we think the front will be during
peak heating Friday. It appears to be a high CAPE, low shear day
with a low-end severe risk. Our main concern is damaging wind
gusts from collapsing storms, but mid-level moisture advection
would weaken downdrafts and lower the wind potential.

The front will linger somewhere across the Southern Plains through
the weekend before another backdoor cold front brings seasonally
warm weather to the area early next week. Similar to Friday,
isolated to scattered storms are expected near the fronts each
afternoon. Since the placement of the fronts are still highly
uncertain, we have broad 20-30% PoPs from Sunday onward.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs have overspread the TAF sites and should prevail through
the morning before scattering out to VFR. IFR has remained
northeast of D10 for most of the morning, so have taken out the
previous TEMPO for all asides KDAL. Storms to the northeast of D10
should remain east of D10. However, we will need to be wary of a
southward moving gust front. If this were to move into D10, winds
would temporarily shift to north flow beginning around 12Z.
Otherwise, expect VFR and south-southeast winds around 15 kts to
prevail today.

Another deck of MVFR Stratus is expected after midnight tonight,
blanketing the TAF sites around 06-07Z on Wednesday. Another line
of storms is expected to move into North Texas after midnight
tonight that will make a run at the D10 terminals near 12Z.
Confidence of terminal impacts was too low to include VCTS at
the tail-end of the TAF period.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  75  91  74  95 /   5  20  10   5   0
Waco                92  75  91  74  93 /   5  10  10   5   5
Paris               87  71  87  69  92 /  30  40  20   5   5
Denton              94  73  90  71  94 /  10  20   5   5   5
McKinney            91  73  89  71  93 /  10  30  10   5   5
Dallas              94  75  92  74  96 /   5  20  10   5   0
Terrell             90  73  89  71  92 /  10  20  10   5   0
Corsicana           92  76  91  74  93 /  10  20  20  10   5
Temple              94  75  92  74  93 /   5  10  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       96  73  93  71  96 /   5  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ142-156>160-174-175.

&&

$$