448
FXUS64 KFWD 071756
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1256 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

Seasonable heat and humidity is in store heading into the weekend
as upper ridging builds overhead. Convective activity on the
outer periphery of the ridge will stay well removed from the
forecast area through the next 36 hours with strong subsidence
overhead locally. Accordingly, ongoing high-based convection in
the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma will not be able to
survive while encroaching on western North Texas. Otherwise,
despite high temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 90s
both today and tomorrow, heat index values will be tempered by
decent mixing out of boundary layer moisture with dewpoints
falling into the mid and upper 60s for most locations during peak
heating. This will yield heat index values of roughly 98-105, so
those planning to spend time outdoors this weekend should still
plan on taking steps to escape the heat.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/
/Saturday Night through Thursday/

Mid level ridging will be shifting to the east by late Saturday
allowing southerly flow to tap into some better moisture over the
northwest Gulf. As it does, a weak shortwave will spread out of
northern Baja California and into West Texas on Sunday. Meanwhile,
a stronger disturbance will dig into the Midwest out of the
Northern Plains and help send a cold front into North Texas by
Sunday night. Strong instability will be in place across the
region during the day Sunday but convection will likely initially
develop well off to our north along the cold front across
Oklahoma. These showers and storms will spread southward during
the overnight hours, likely losing some of their intensity through
the night. It`s a little uncertain whether or not the cold front
will make it through North Texas, but the boundary should linger
somewhere in the vicinity of the Red River through the early part
of the week. With stronger ridging building back in across
northwest Mexico into the Four Corners region, we`ll remain
embedded within modest northwest flow through mid week and will
hang on to at least low storm chances into Wednesday. Temperatures
will be cooler Monday and Tuesday (low/mid 80s) with increased
cloud cover and precipitation chances. Beyond that, ridging will
build back into the Southern Plains and we`ll warm back into the
low/mid 90s.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds. While
speeds today will remain near 10 kts, expect gustier conditions
for Saturday with sustained winds of 15-20 kts and occasional
daytime gusts exceeding 25 kts. Scattered cirrus will be the
extent of cloud cover during the next 30 hours.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  76  96  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                94  74  94  73  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               92  72  92  72  91 /  10   5   5   0   5
Denton              95  74  96  72  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            94  74  95  72  91 /   5   0   0   0   5
Dallas              94  76  96  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             92  73  94  72  91 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           92  75  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              96  72  95  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  74  98  73  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$