197
FXUS64 KFWD 142342
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Monday Morning/

A relatively quiet evening is in store across the majority of the
region, with lighter winds and an influx of increasingly dense
upper-level cloud cover expected to persist. An isolated storm or
two remains possible across our southeastern counties through
tonight as a weak frontal boundary remains draped across the
region, observed mainly by differences in surface wind directions.
Severe weather is not expected, though gusty winds and brief,
heavy rain may be possible. While a lull in precipitation is
expected overnight, north/northwesterly flow in the mid levels of
the atmosphere will set eastern North Texas in the path of a
potential cluster of showers and storms, similar to what occurred
earlier this morning. Otherwise, expect a warm and muggy start to
your Sunday as low temperatures stay in the 60s and 70s.

The aforementioned surface front will slowly move south/southwest
over the day tomorrow, shifting surface winds to a more easterly
direction in its wake. As energy from TS Ileana continues to
stream across the state, the GOM ridge will begin to break down
and shunt the apex a bit further west. As such, afternoon
temperatures will be a tad cooler, with highs expected to peak in
the mid 80s to mid-upper 90s. These temperatures remain near to
above normal, and with the continued increased humidity, will keep
heat indices even higher, ranging from 90 in the northeast to
around 104 in portions of Central Texas.

The increased PVA (energy) from TS Ileana will also interact with
the boundary and better moisture ahead of the front, allowing for
isolated to scattered showers and storms once again over Sunday
afternoon and evening across portions of Central Texas and the Big
Country. Severe weather remains unlikely, though gusty winds,
lightning, and brief, heavy rain will be possible with any
stronger storm. Any lingering precipitation in Central Texas will
end late Sunday night, leaving behind a warm and muggy start to
the new work week. Monday morning temperatures are progged to
bottom out in the 60s and 70s once again.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 227 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/
/Upcoming Week and Beyond/

Near to slightly above average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions can be expected for all of North and Central Texas
through the upcoming work week. Afternoon highs will generally
range between the low to mid 90s, with a few locations out west
approaching the upper 90s. It will feel much like a typical late
summer setup for most of the region, at least through the next
week or so. Overnight lows will stay warm and humid thanks to the
return of southerly flow at the surface and increased dew points,
hovering around the mid 70s each night. Rain chances will remain
low through the week, giving way to abnormally dry conditions. Our
flow pattern will continue to be dictated by weak upper level
ridging across the Southern Plains, keeping us in northwesterly
flow aloft. Widespread subsidence will keep the best rain chances
to our north and west, with low confidence in any showers or
storms reaching our area through much of the week ahead.

But there is potential for a pattern change next weekend! The
latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at a
breakdown of this upper level ridge, which would allow troughing
across the western and eastern CONUS to guide our weather
conditions. While confidence remains quite low regarding specifics
at this time, this would help to increase rain chances as we move
into the latter half of the month. This would also bring about
cooler temperatures for most of the region, reminding us that this
summer weather will eventually come to an end. Continue to check
back for updates to the forecast as details become more refined!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Variable winds around 5 kts at D10 will persist over the next
couple of hours before winds settle out of the east around 03Z
tonight. Over the next 24-30 hours, winds in D10 will range from
ENE to ESE, though remain overall easterly. The best chance for
more NE winds will be between 18-00Z tomorrow, but speeds should
stay below 10 kts. VFR will prevail, with upper level cloud cover
slowly decreasing over tomorrow.

For ACT, southeasterly winds will continue through tomorrow
morning, eventually shifting N-NNE tomorrow afternoon. Speeds will
remain AOB 10 kts. VFR will prevail.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  93  71  93  72 /   5   5   5   0   0
Waco                74  97  71  95  71 /   5  20  10   0   0
Paris               67  87  67  87  67 /   5  10   0   0   0
Denton              71  93  68  92  69 /   5  10   5   0   0
McKinney            70  92  68  92  69 /   5  10   0   0   0
Dallas              74  94  71  93  71 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             70  92  68  91  68 /   5   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  94  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   0   0
Temple              73  98  71  96  70 /   0  30  20   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  94  69  93  69 /   5   5  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$