072
FXUS64 KFWD 091754
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1254 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail the rest of today
before low storm chances arrive late this afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front continues to sag southward towards the TX/OK
border, and this boundary is likely to result in scattered
convection during peak heating as destabilization occurs.
Thunderstorms could affect our northern zones depending on how far
south this front advances the rest of this afternoon, and a
couple of strong storms with hail/wind threats can`t be ruled out.
However, a lack of shear will tend to limit storm organization
and strength. In addition, convection from an active West Texas
dryline is also likely to spread eastward towards the forecast
area overnight, some of which may spill into our northwestern
zones tomorrow morning while simultaneously weakening.

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing
tomorrow morning across North Texas as the front slowly continues
its southward advance. The overall environment will be
unfavorable for severe thunderstorms, but can`t completely rule
out some updrafts capable of hail with MUCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg
above the frontal inversion. PW values will also be remarkably
high, and any storms that do exist will be capable of brief heavy
downpours. However, the potential for long-lived training
thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall and flooding is rather
low, and will once again be mitigated by a lack of shear to
organize deep convection. Showers and storms will accompany the
front southward into Central Texas during the afternoon, while
perhaps a slightly more organized complex encroaches on the area
from West Texas heading into the evening. With plenty of clouds
present along with slightly cooler air behind the front, highs
will only reach the mid 80s for most locations, with the exception
of southern Central Texas where temperatures will climb to around
90 prior to the front`s arrival.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 249 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/
/Monday Night through Saturday/

A relatively active pattern is expected through the first half of
the week with periodic thunderstorm chances through Wednesday.
Scattered afternoon convection on Monday should be in the
dissipation phase by late Monday evening with a loss of daytime
heating leading to a fairly quiet night with slightly cooler
overnight lows in the 60s and lower 70s. By Tuesday, an upstream
shortwave will move out of the Four Corners region and into the TX
Panhandle. Model guidance has been fairly consistent with a semi-
organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms developing across
southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas during the afternoon hours
and spreading southeast with time. This will likely represent our
greatest chance for rainfall over the coming days as there will
be modest synoptic scale forcing for ascent along with what
remains of our lingering frontal boundary. Mid level lapse rates
are weak during this time and deep layer shear is modest at best
which suggests that the overall severe weather threat is low. With
PW`s in excess of 2 inches though, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible which could aggravate flooding issues in areas that have
recently received heavy rainfall.

The upper disturbance will quickly move southeast of us by late
Tuesday and most of the thunderstorm activity should wane by
evening. Upper ridging will build in again from West Texas
starting on Wednesday, but lingering moisture and strong
afternoon heating could lead to an additional round of scattered
thunderstorms, mainly along and east of I-35. Afternoon highs will
be tempered a bit by increased cloud cover and rain chances
Tuesday and Wednesday, topping out in the mid and upper 80s.
Stronger ridging will build back into the area toward the end of
the week into next weekend and high temperatures will climb back
into the low to mid 90s with no additional thunderstorm activity
expected.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

VFR will prevail the rest of today with a south wind around 10
kts. A weak frontal zone will move into the area tonight,
resulting in a 10 kt northeast wind shift around 06z for D10
airports. A swath of post-frontal stratus will follow, with MVFR
(and perhaps intermittent IFR) cigs likely to affect all TAF
sites heading into Monday morning. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity is also likely near and behind this front,
with a few hours of showers and perhaps some brief TS activity
near the TAF sites early tomorrow morning. Convective activity
should be shifting into Central Texas by the afternoon, but MVFR
cigs are likely to linger for most of the daytime.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  73  85  71  87 /   5  20  30  20  30
Waco                91  74  87  72  88 /   5  10  30  10  30
Paris               91  69  82  65  85 /   5  20  20   5  20
Denton              94  69  84  69  86 /   5  30  30  20  40
McKinney            93  71  84  69  86 /   5  30  30  20  30
Dallas              94  73  85  71  88 /   5  20  30  20  30
Terrell             91  72  85  69  87 /   5  20  30  10  30
Corsicana           92  74  88  72  89 /   5  10  30  10  20
Temple              93  74  90  71  91 /   5  10  20  10  20
Mineral Wells       95  71  84  70  88 /   5  30  40  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$