648
FXUS64 KFWD 151746
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

Another hot day is in store across North and Central Texas with
high temperatures expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s.
Given the humidity, heat index values are going to run a few
degrees warmer than the actual temperature. Most locations should
stay below the triple digit mark with respect to heat index,
however, a 100 degree reading or two cannot be ruled out. Tonight,
expect temperatures in the 70s across much of the region with
winds out of the south/southeast.

Tomorrow`s forecast is similar to today with highs in the mid 90s
across the region. No precipitation is expected.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 243 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Gulf moisture will be on the increase next week as a tropical
wave moves northwest from the Bay of Campeche into northeastern
Mexico and South Texas. Low-end POPs will begin across the
southeast zones Monday afternoon as the initial surge of tropical
moisture arrives. Rain chances will spread a little farther
inland each day through Wednesday as the disturbances itself moves
north and west, and a second moisture surge arrives. Central
Texas will lie on the northern fringe of the system and is where
our better rain chances will be, though isolated showers and
storms will likely spread to and north of the I-20 corridor by
Tuesday, and to the Red River by Wednesday. Locally heavy rain
would be the primary concern in any thunderstorm, but the isolated
to scattered nature of the convection should mitigate the overall
flood threat. Individual cells will also move at a pretty good
pace, particularly Wednesday when southeast flow will be strongest
and storm motions should end up being northwest at 30+ MPH.

The tropical system will turn west and accelerate across Mexico on
Thursday. Diurnally driven convection will be possible for one
more day with isolated rain showers lingering into Thursday night.
The ridge will re-strengthen overhead on Friday, briefly shutting
off rain chances and increasing temperatures once again. More rain
chances may arrive next weekend, however, as the ridge weakens due
to a mid latitude trough sweeping through the Plains.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...None

VFR skies will continue through the next 30 hours across North
and Central Texas. Afternoon cumulus will dissipate this evening
leaving behind cirrus clouds through tomorrow. Winds will remain
out of the south/southeast, generally below 10 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  76  94  76  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                92  73  91  75  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               94  73  93  73  89 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              95  73  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            94  73  93  73  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              97  76  94  76  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             93  72  93  73  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           94  74  94  75  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
Temple              94  72  93  74  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       94  74  93  74  93 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$