843
FXUS64 KFWD 182328
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
628 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

A strengthening ridge aloft will keep above-normal temperatures
and rain-free conditions in place through the end of the work
week. Lows in the lower to middle 70s tonight followed by highs in
the mid to upper 90s on Thursday will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for North Texas, and 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
Central Texas. Dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s will produce heat
index values of 100 to 105 Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, a
surface ridge near the lower Mississippi River valley and a front
in the Texas Panhandle will keep our winds out of the south to
southeast at 5 to 15 MPH.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/
/Thursday Evening Through Early Next Week/

Abnormal heat will continue into the weekend, with the hottest
temperatures expected to occur on Friday. Fortunately, it doesn`t
look like our record high temperatures for our climate sites (DFW,
Waco, and Killeen) will fall, though temperatures will be within
a few degrees of record values. Similar to the previous forecasts,
sided with slightly warmer guidance as the NBM continues to be a
bit too low, with high temperatures expected to climb into the
mid to upper 90s Friday afternoon. While only a handful of
locations will reach triple digits, high humidity will send heat
index values above 100 degrees for most locations. Some locations
will see heat index values above 105 degrees, but we do not
anticipate the need for a Heat Advisory as criteria will only be
met for a single day. Despite this, ensure you`re practicing heat
safety as the summer-like heat persists.

On Saturday, an upper low will swing from the Four Corners Region
into the Central Plains. A slight increase in cloud cover will
result in a subtle decrease in temperatures Saturday afternoon,
with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper low will drag a cold
front through much of the Plains as it moves east over the weekend,
but it`s still rather uncertain whether this front will reach our
forecast area. The NBM is not advertising any frontal passage at
this time; however, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring this
front through North and Central Texas sometime Sunday or Monday.
Sided closely with NBM for now, but some adjustments may be
needed as confidence increases over the next day or two. Low rain
chances are currently forecast for western North and Central Texas
Sunday evening associated with convection near the front to our
west. However, PoPs may need to be expanded and increased if
confidence in FROPA for our area increases.

Beyond this weekend, there is considerable uncertainty in what
next week will entail. However, it appears temperatures will be
closer to normal values. Some guidance hints at a cold front
towards the middle of the week, with low chances for showers and
storms returning around the same time.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Another relatively tranquil period of aviation weather can be
expected as high pressure aloft continues to strengthen. VFR
should continue through Thursday evening along with south to
southeast winds of 5 to 10 kt, occasionally gusting to 15-20kt.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                75  98  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               70  93  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  97  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  97  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             73  98  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              74  98  73  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  97  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$