131
FXUS64 KFWD 171803
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
103 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Another warm and generally sunny day is in store for all of North
and Central Texas. A batch of widespread stratus overtook our
northeastern counties this morning, but this cloud cover should
gradually mix out through the late morning into the early
afternoon thanks to boundary layer processes resuming. Otherwise,
expect highs today in the low to mid 90s with lows in the 70s.

There is a low chance (around 10% or less) for isolated showers
well to our southwest, as per some of the latest CAM guidance.
It`s likely that this will remain limited to some very isolated
virga due to how shallow any convection would be, especially with
dry air in place at the surface. Confidence is quite low with
regards to this activity. Decided to keep the previous forecast
thought process going and opted to leave mentionable PoPs out.

Tomorrow will be a rinse and repeat of today, except with
slightly higher temperatures given more widespread subsidence and
southeasterly flow at the surface. Highs will climb into the mid
to upper 90s for much of the region, with sunny skies prevailing.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 255 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/
/Wednesday and beyond/

As a persistent ridge of high pressure maintains unseasonably
warm temperatures across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, a
strong mid-level low/shortwave trough will lift across the
northern Rockies and northern Plains. Though the southern Plains
mid-level ridge will remain tethered to the state through the
forecast period, the expanding western U.S. trough will tilt the
ridge axis across North and Central Texas. The eastward shift of
the associated low level thermal ridge will inflate 850 mb
temperatures locally by an average of 4 to 7C according to model
projections. This is good for about the 90th percentile of the
historical temperature distribution in both the NAEFS and ECMWF
ensembles. Mixing to the surface during peak daytime heating,
this will translate to widespread highs in the mid to upper 90s
each afternoon. For this time of year, the average high at DFW and
Waco is 87F and 90F, respectively. Adjustments have been made to
account for the deep vertical mixing expected which should allow
dewpoints to mix out on these hot and dry afternoons, up to
several degrees below the current NBM guidance. The resulting heat
indices should peak below Heat Advisory criteria, however heat
safety precautions should still be considered if spending time
outdoors this week.

As the first shortwave ejects into the Canadian Prairies, another
upper level low pressure system will dive down the West Coast
reaching central California by Thursday morning. This feature is
progged to track across the Rockies and move into the Plains this
weekend. Unfortunately, any previously held hopes of returning
(low) rain chances and seasonally appropriate temperatures late
this weekend and into the following week have vanished as the
shortwave and associated frontal boundary look to remain on a
track north of the forecast area. This will keep the subtropical
ridge in control of our sensible weather through the end of the
period. Favoring a status quo forecast for day 6 (Sunday) and
beyond, temperatures have been raised above the MOS and NBM
guidance to near the NBM 50th percentile. As always, forecast
details for this time period will continue to change/update as we
go through the rest of the week.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR has returned and will prevail across all TAF sites through
the period. Ceilings have rapidly improved this morning with the
initiation of daytime mixing. That being said, some lingering
MVFR/IFR will exist through the early afternoon for portions of
the Bonham cornerpost. Otherwise, expect generally sunny skies and
winds less than 10 knots from the east-southeast through tomorrow.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  74  95  76  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                94  73  96  74  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               85  69  91  71  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  71  96  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            91  70  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              93  73  96  76  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             90  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           93  73  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              95  72  97  73  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$