Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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432 FXUS64 KFWD 180610 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 110 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ North Texas will remain in the grip of an upper level ridge extending from northern Mexico into the Central Plains. Subsidence associated with this feature will continue to produce clear skies and temperatures that are noticeably above normal for the last half of September. Highs will climb well into the 90s across the entire area later today, while lows tonight will only manage to reach the lower 70s. A southerly flow regime will pump renewed moisture into the region, contributing to heat indices that will push past the century mark in many locales later today. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ /Thursday Through Early Next Week/ Unseasonably strong ridging will intensify into the weekend above the Southern Plains as persistent troughing dominates both the West and the East. Temperatures will steadily climb in tandem with rising 500mb heights, which will top 5900m by Friday. All available perfect-prog guidance projects 500mb temperatures above the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex will rise above -1C (into the 30s in Fahrenheit) on Friday. The NAM has 500mb temperatures above freezing! This isn`t just near-record for September but would challenge the all-time record high 500mb temperature for our local weather balloons (1950 to present), which is -0.5C from July 1951. Despite intense subsidence and similarly impressive temperature anomalies at 700 and 850mb, a remarkably humid boundary layer, combined with the shorter days and lower sun angles of September, may keep Friday`s high temperatures below daily record highs (values in the climate section below). MOS guidance has highs near 100F Friday afternoon for many locations, including DFW and Waco. Heat index values will exceed 100 across much of the region late in the week and into the upcoming weekend, with the highest values occurring on Friday. An upper low will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday. Although its associated cold front will likely get no closer than the Texas Panhandle, it will reorient our upper ridge. Combined with an influx of high clouds, this may shave a few degrees off afternoon temperatures on Saturday. However, there will still be the potential for temperatures to threaten the century mark in some locations. Decaying frontal convection from West Texas may invade from the west Saturday night into Sunday morning; these showers are the only rain chances in the 7-day forecast. Early next week, the ridge will be displaced to our south. While this will bring an end to the threat of triple digits, temperatures will remain above normal with highs generally in the 90s Sunday through Tuesday. However, extended guidance knows that cold fronts cluster around the autumnal equinox (which is on Sunday). Although there is considerable disparity among operational solutions and ensemble members, there is some hope for a cold front during the middle of next week. But don`t break out the winter coats just yet; the Climate Prediction Center continues to favor above normal temperatures through the end of the month. .CLIMATE... Record Highs for September 20 (Friday) DFW 102 in 1953 Waco 101 in 2021 Killeen 100 in 2021 (DFW Airport was 100 degrees on September 20, 2021.) Although all 3 sites recorded later triple-digit days last year, each location has only reached the century mark this late in the year (September 20 and later) 5 years this century. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through 12z Thursday, as upper level high pressure maintains its grip on the region. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop areawide after 15z this morning; otherwise, skies will remain clear. Low level east to southeast winds prior to dawn will shift to a southerly direction at speeds of 8-12 knots by midday, as a trough of low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies. Bradshaw && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 74 97 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 71 94 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 73 97 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 73 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 76 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 72 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 97 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 97 73 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 97 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$