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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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797 FXUS64 KFWD 121030 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 530 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Showers and isolated storms initially developed near the I-20 corridor, but have shifted south into Central Texas as the upper low responsible for the precipitation drops farther south and east with time. This trend will continue through the day, with convection eventually ending by this evening. The current forecast is in good shape with only minor grid adjustments needed in this update. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ An upper low can be spotted on the latest water vapor satellite loop spiraling over North Texas this evening. A strengthening ridge over the Southern Rockies will push the low southeast from North Texas into East Texas overnight, then through Louisiana on Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms just west of the DFW Metroplex continue to develop near the low center. Calling it a low level jet would be a stretch, but an uptick in 925mb winds (20-25 MPH) should be enough to generate additional showers and storms during the overnight period, with development generally along and south of the I-20 corridor. Activity will develop farther south with time overnight through Wednesday as the upper low treks farther south and east. Locally heavy rain would be the main concern with any storm based on the exceptionally moist and modestly unstable airmass in place. Not everyone will see rain, however, due to the spotty nature of the convection. All precipitation will shift south of the region Wednesday evening as the low heads for the Gulf and the ridge begins an eastward expansion into the Southern Plains. The ridge will shut off our rain chances and bring a return to more typical summer weather for Texas. It will be a touch warmer Wednesday afternoon with highs mainly in the 85 to 90 degree range, followed by even warmer weather on Thursday with afternoon highs mainly 90 to 95 degrees. We will fall short of Heat Advisory criteria, though Thursday afternoon heat indices of 95 to 100 will be common across the board. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ /Thursday Night through Tuesday/ Mid level ridging will be in place across the Plains by Friday with a warm end of the week and weekend expected. A compact shortwave trough will eject out of the Four Corners region and into the Plains on Saturday which will dampen the ridging across North Texas, but moisture will be limited and stronger forcing for ascent will be well removed. While we may see a degree or two shaved off of afternoon highs Saturday and Sunday, we`ll still be well into the 90s. The weakness in the ridging will persist into early next week coincident with a westward moving inverted trough associated with deeper tropical moisture. This feature will spread westward across the Gulf around the periphery of strengthening ridging over the southeast U.S.through Tuesday. As it does, a slug of 2.5"+ PWs late Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday. This increased deep layer moisture combined with typical afternoon heating should lead to an appreciable increase in convection across southeast TX both afternoons. While it remains to be seen whether any organized tropical development can occur, there is certainly an increasing probability that coastal showers/storms can push farther inland both Monday and Tuesday. We`ll have generally low PoPs for now on both days, mainly across our southeast counties, but we`ll continue to monitor this feature over the coming days. Otherwise, temperatures will generally run a few degrees above seasonal norms through early next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Convection has shifted south into Central Texas, and will merely keep VCSH in the Metroplex TAFs for another hour to account for any lingering rain showers. KACT will encounter occasional showers and storms through the morning, with activity ending this afternoon. Once the precipitation ends, VFR is expected for the rest of the forecast period, along with a shift to light southeast winds. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 73 94 73 95 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 87 72 92 71 92 / 30 5 0 0 0 Paris 88 67 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 89 70 93 70 95 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 89 70 92 69 94 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dallas 90 73 95 72 95 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 88 70 92 68 93 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 89 71 93 71 95 / 20 5 0 0 0 Temple 87 72 93 71 93 / 40 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 88 70 93 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$