791
FXUS64 KFWD 210757
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
257 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/
/Overnight through Sunday/

Mid level ridging will remain in control of North Texas weather
through much of the weekend resulting in hot and dry weather, but
changes are on the way early next week. In the meantime, a minimum
in PW over North and East Texas associated with the mid level
ridge will linger through Saturday night. Southerly winds will
slowly tap into better moisture, but the western Gulf is
relatively dry at this time. This means we`ll warm up nicely again
today with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values
topping out just above 100 degrees.

Mid level ridging will begin to break down a bit later tonight and
Sunday as a fairly strong shortwave spreads out of the Four
Corners region and into the Plains. As it does, a cold front will
slide southward and should be located across West Texas into
Central Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing during this time off to our
northwest. While the main shortwave will pass well off to our
north, the front will still have some southerly push and should
enter our northwest counties after dark Sunday evening. We`ll have
some 20-40% PoPs late Sunday afternoon across our far northwest
counties but these should increase significantly overnight.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night through Next Week/

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through at least mid-
week with multiple opportunities for rain and near or just below
normal temperatures.

On Monday, rain and storm chances will spread eastward as the
cold front moves across our region. While the greatest forcing
will stay well north of our area due to the position of the upper
level trough, the front should still give us sufficient lift for
at least scattered showers and storm during the day. Given most of
the precipitation will occur behind the front, the main hazards
will be occasional lighting and brief heavy rain. The good news is
that the combination of rain and clouds will keep daytime highs
in the 70s and low 80s with the exception of areas ahead of the
boundary (the southern counties) where highs could still approach
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

Large scale troughing across the central U.S. will send another
disturbance southward toward the southern Plains Tuesday and
Wednesday. This in combination with the lingering surface
boundary should give us a few more opportunities to see scattered
rain and perhaps a few storms. There are still some uncertainties
on the track of the wave, with some guidance showing higher
coverage and others keeping the chances for rain until Thursday.
For now, we will keep the model blend with PoPs ranging from
20-40% with the highest chances across the western half of the
region. The main hazards will again be brief heavy rain and
lightning. Otherwise, the afternoon temperatures will remain near
or just below normal through Friday with highs generally in the
80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with some passing high clouds
and southerly winds around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns
are expected at this time.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  76  93  68  81 /   0   0   0  30  30
Waco                96  72  94  71  85 /   0   0   0  10  20
Paris               96  74  93  69  82 /   0   0   0  10  30
Denton              98  74  94  65  80 /   0   0   5  40  30
McKinney            98  74  94  67  81 /   0   0   0  20  30
Dallas              98  76  94  69  82 /   0   0   0  20  30
Terrell             98  72  94  69  84 /   0   0   0  10  30
Corsicana           98  73  94  72  86 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              97  71  94  70  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
Mineral Wells       97  71  93  62  79 /   0   0  10  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$