876
FXUS64 KFWD 141033
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Area radars indicate widely scattered showers (with a few
lightning strikes) have developed north of the Red River this
morning, roughly along the I-35 corridor. Given the southeastward
trajectory, these showers/storms may make a run at adjacent areas
of N Texas around or just after daybreak. The CAMs are not too
keen on any rain chances along the Red River this morning, and I`m
inclined to agree as measurable precipitation will be tough to
squeeze out without some more aggressive moistening over the next
few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the previous forecast remains
on track with only minor modifications made to Sunday`s rain
chances to account for adjustments in morning guidance.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

A warm and mostly quiet night is underway with temperatures
expected to settle in the mid 60s to lower 70s by daybreak amid
the prevailing light southerly winds. Previous runs of some of the
CAMs indicated the potential for isolated showers to develop
during the pre-dawn hours along the periphery of the LLJ (near the
I-35 corridor in central Oklahoma). There remains a very low
chance (about 10% or less) that some virga or a stray light shower
associated with this activity will make it into our far northeastern
counties around or shortly after sunrise.

The main feature to watch today will be Tropical Storm Ileana
which remains poorly organized as it moves into the southern Gulf
of California overnight. The current NHC forecast calls for slow
dissipation of the cyclone as it drifts along the northwest coast
of Mexico. GOES satellite imagery is already showing an increase
in moisture aloft/high clouds spreading across the state tonight
from the Eastern Pacific (associated with T.S. Ileana).
Unfortunately, the aforementioned clouds aren`t expected to
significantly impact daytime temperatures with highs generally
climbing into the mid/upper 90s and heat index values in the
triple digits.

By mid-afternoon, additional low rain chances...20 percent or
less...will emerge across eastern Central Texas as lift
associated with a weak mid level disturbance working through
northwest flow aloft interacts with the weak frontal boundary
lingering across the area. The coverage of this activity will
remain fairly sparse leaving much of North and Central Texas
precip-free until Sunday. See below for more on Sunday`s rain
chances.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/
/Sunday and Beyond/

Remnants of Tropical Storm Ileana will phase with a weak shortwave
trough exiting the Desert Southwest over the state of Texas late
Saturday into early Sunday. This synoptic pattern will continue to
stream upper-level moisture over the region and help support
isolated to scattered showers and storms Sunday morning into
Sunday night across portions of the region. Isolated showers may
be ongoing in the vicinity of the Red River Sunday morning on the
nose of a strong theta-e ridge. Better chances (20-30%) for
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as strong daytime
heating leads to 1250-1750 J/kg MLCAPE near a weak frontal zone
laid out generally from Eastland/Stephens County toward the Brazos
Valley. Widespread severe weather is not expected due to weak
wind shear. However, an environment marked by mid- to upper-90s
temps over mid-60s dewpoints with more than sufficient instability
could support a couple strong, pulse-type thunderstorms capable
of producing gusty downburst winds.

Rain chances across our southwestern half will diminish by late
Sunday evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Mid- to upper-
level ridging will then become anchored over North and Central
Texas through much of the work week, keeping dry and abnormally
hot conditions in place. Expect afternoon highs in the low to
mid-90s and overnight lows in the upper-60s to mid-70s through the
work week.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance are showing signs of a
stronger storm system entering the Plains next weekend potentially
bringing rain chances and cooler temperatures to the region.
However, with this potential system still remaining 6-8 days out,
confidence is currently low in this particular scenario
(something to watch for!)

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions will persist across area terminals through
the next 24-30 hours. Morning IR satellite imagery show SCT/BKN
high clouds around FL250 passing overhead associated with moisture
from Tropical Storm Ileana in the southern Gulf of California.
The widely scattered showers drifting southeastward across
Oklahoma this morning are expected to dissipate before reaching
the Metroplex.

Winds may become a bit challenging today as wind direction varies
between 100-190 today. Prevailing surface flow is generally SE
with winds just above the surface directed more W-SW. Winds at the
surface may briefly become more southerly or even southwesterly
as winds aloft mix down to the surface later this morning.
However, under the influence of mid-upper level ridging, wind
speeds will remain light, generally 10 knots or less, keeping wind
direction intermittently variable.

There will be a low chances (~20%) of isolated showers and storms
across East Texas this afternoon and evening as a weak
disturbance interacts with a lingering weak boundary over the
region. Any TSRA that develops should remain east of all TAF
sites, so no mention will be included with this update.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  74  93  72  92 /  10  10  10   5   0
Waco                98  72  97  72  95 /   5  10  10  20   0
Paris               90  68  88  68  88 /  10  10  20   5   5
Denton              97  72  93  69  92 /  10  10  10  10   0
McKinney            95  71  93  69  92 /  10  10  20  10   0
Dallas              98  74  95  72  94 /  10  10  10   5   0
Terrell             96  70  92  68  91 /  10  20  20  10   0
Corsicana           98  73  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  10   0
Temple              99  73  98  71  97 /   0   5  20  20   0
Mineral Wells       98  71  96  70  95 /   5   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$