Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
287 FXUS64 KFWD 182354 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 654 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday Evening/ Isolated showers will remain possible over portions of the Brazos Valley and eastern Central Texas for a couple more hours this evening as southeasterly low/mid-level flow associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 continues to pump Gulf moisture over the area. As the center of this system moves onshore south of the Texas border, a high PWAT airmass will move overhead much of South and Central Texas increasing rain chances later Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Latest high-res guidance trends continue to push the higher rainfall totals south of our forecast area. The greatest shower and thunderstorm chances look to remain south of a Lampasas- Temple-Hearne line where rainfall totals of 0.5-1.0" are expected. As you move further north toward the I-20 corridor, shower and storm coverage will become more isolated with many areas along/north of I-20 missing out on the rain completely. It is important to note that very localized higher totals are possible across Central Texas with any more robust cells or training bands of rainfall due to a very anomalously moist airmass. Widespread cloud cover will bring a break from the heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid-80s expected across much of the region Wednesday. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ Update: Rain bands associated with PTC One will continue to move from southeast to west across the state on Wednesday night as the remnants of the tropical depression/storm transition further inland into Mexico. Overall, the forecast trends discussed below remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. The NBM has continued a downward trend in the coverage of precipitation after sunrise on Thursday with convection contracting closer to the main circulation. This is likely to keep many areas rain-free after sunrise on Thursday apart from portions of Central Texas and areas near/west of US-281 in North Texas. 12 Previous Discussion: /Wednesday Night Onward/ A tropical disturbance will continue moving west across South Texas and northern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorms will shift west of the I-35 corridor, eventually exiting to our west during the overnight hours. A second batch of precipitation may develop across Central Texas during the day Thursday along a lingering moist axis, which will warrant some chance to slight chance POPs south of the I-20 corridor. All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead. The result will be a return to hot, humid, and rain-free weather Friday through the weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will have conditions pushing Heat Advisory criteria either Sunday or Monday (heat index 105 or greater). The next opportunity for rain will be associated with either another tropical system entering from the south, a weak front from the north, or both around the middle part of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Isolated showers will remain possible over portions of the Brazos Valley for the next couple of hours, but should largely remain southeast of KACT. MVFR cigs will redevelop across portions of Central Texas late tonight into Wednesday morning, primarily impacting the KACT terminal and remaining south and southwest of the D10 terminals. However, there is a ~20% chance that MVFR cigs develop over the Metroplex for a few hours near sunrise Wednesday morning. We will continue to monitor this low potential through the night. Drizzle/mist may develop out of this cloud deck over portions of Central Texas Wednesday morning. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase across Central Texas later Wednesday morning and especially into Wednesday afternoon. We have introduced a VCSH mention at KACT after 17Z Wednesday. Rain coverage will become quite a bit more isolated as you move north toward the I-20 corridor, therefore we have opted to keep any precip mention out of the D10 TAFs at the moment. Otherwise expect southeasterly winds at 10-20 kts, occasionally gusting to 25 kts, through this evening shifting more easterly by Wednesday morning. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 87 76 92 75 / 5 10 20 10 0 Waco 74 82 74 89 73 / 10 30 30 20 5 Paris 71 85 73 91 71 / 5 10 5 5 0 Denton 73 88 73 91 72 / 5 10 10 10 0 McKinney 73 87 73 91 73 / 5 10 10 5 0 Dallas 74 87 75 93 75 / 5 20 20 10 0 Terrell 72 85 74 92 72 / 10 20 10 5 0 Corsicana 74 85 76 92 75 / 10 30 20 5 0 Temple 74 82 73 89 73 / 10 50 40 20 10 Mineral Wells 73 87 73 89 72 / 0 10 20 20 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$