411
FXUS64 KFWD 221838
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
138 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

The first day of astronomical fall will feel more like late August
with widespread highs in the low to mid-90s expected this
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in
the vicinity of a slow-moving cold front currently situated from
Central Oklahoma to Northwest Texas. Current analysis of the speed
of this frontal boundary and the latest suite of high-resolution
guidance places the front in our far west and northwest counties
by ~6PM this evening. With the greatest synoptic-scale support
displaced to the north of our forecast area, expect shower and
thunderstorm coverage to remain more scattered south of the Red
River as the front shifts into North Texas. Isentropic ascent atop
the frontal layer and a modest vorticity maxima shifting overhead
tonight into early Monday will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast through Monday morning. Rainfall totals
will remain quite light across most of the region with a 40-50%
chance for 1+" totals along/west of Highway 281 with the initial
activity that enters our area later this evening. Severe weather
is not expected, however isolated 30-40 mph wind gusts across our
far west will be possible.

The front will push through the entirety of our forecast area into
Central and Southeast Texas by midday Monday with rain chances
tapering off as the primary mid- and upper-level support shifts to
the northeast. Cloud cover and post-frontal northwesterly winds
will finally break the streak of abnormally warm weather we have
been experiencing the past several days. Expect high temperatures
to top in the mid-70s to lower 80s across much of North Texas
Monday afternoon with upper 80s to lower 90s across our far
southern zones.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 404 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion will push
well south of our forecast area by Monday night, becoming
stationary across south central Texas by Tuesday. Surface high
pressure over the Central Plains will enable a persistent
northerly wind flow through most of the week - indeed, the longest
period of north winds North Texas has experienced since the
spring months. This will help moderate the temperatures this
coming week, versus the unseasonably warm conditions we`ve
encountered of late.

A large-scale upper level trough will develop and deepen across
the Midwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, while a smaller-
scale lobe of vorticity slides southeastward into our region on
the backside of this larger feature. The forcing for ascent
brought about by this approaching shortwave will provide our
second primary opportunity for precipitation across the area this
week. Scattered showers, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms,
will initially develop over our western counties Tuesday
afternoon, with scattered coverage expanding across the remainder
of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture and
lift will not be overly significant, and thus QPF amounts should
remain fairly light area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most
of the precipitation should exit the region to the east by late
Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions persisting from that
point onward through Saturday.


The combination of lower thicknesses, persistent northerly surface
flow, and intermittent clouds and precipitation should combine to
reel afternoon temperatures back to near (or even below) seasonal
norms. Highs through the period should be confined to the lower
80s across much of the area, with middle 80s present in the
central counties. These values were consistent with those offered
by the NBM, as well as the ECMWF ensemble guidance. Overnight lows
in the lower to middle 60s (with some 50s out west) will
definitely help make the mornings feel a bit more fall-like.


Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight for all
North and Central Texas terminals ahead of the passage of a cold
front currently situated roughly from Enid, OK (KWDG) to Lubbock,
TX (KLBB). Expect south flow around 10 kts gusting to 20 kts at
times through this evening and early overnight before shifting
northwesterly ~05Z at the D10 terminals and ~10Z-11Z at KACT.

Widespread postfrontal MVFR cigs are expected to overspread the
region by early Monday morning remaining overhead through at least
early Monday afternoon. There is a low chance for a few hours of
IFR cigs Monday morning, and the need for an IFR addition to the
TAF will be evaluated in future TAF updates. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to shift toward the UKW and JEN
cornerposts later this evening, then increasing in coverage along
the I-35 corridor after midnight tonight. The greatest rain
chances (30-40%) at D10 look to occur in the 09Z-15Z time frame.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  70  80  67  83 /  10  30  30  10  20
Waco                94  72  87  69  87 /   0  20  20  10  30
Paris               93  70  83  63  84 /   0  20  40  10  10
Denton              94  66  80  62  84 /  10  40  40  10  20
McKinney            95  69  82  64  84 /  10  30  40  10  20
Dallas              96  71  83  67  84 /  10  30  30  10  20
Terrell             95  72  85  66  85 /   0  20  30  10  20
Corsicana           96  74  88  69  87 /   0  10  20  10  20
Temple              95  72  90  69  88 /   0  20  20  10  30
Mineral Wells       93  65  80  62  82 /  20  50  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$