528
FXUS64 KFWD 151015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
515 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track,
therefore no significant adjustments were needed with this
morning`s update other than to incorporate present observations.
Scattered storms did develop across Deep East Texas earlier this
morning, but this activity stayed just outside of our area of
concern and has since dissipated.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday Afternoon/

In contrast to the past few days, a warm and humid night is
unfolding across North and Central Texas with mid-level ridging in
place. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s
though the urban areas are likely to hover closer to the mid 70s
through daybreak. The stream of high clouds which had been
associated with T.S. Ileana will decrease in coverage through the
pre-dawn hours as the cyclone weakens along the coast of NW
Mexico.

Though the surface remnants of Francine have diminished, an area
of low pressure aloft continues to spin over the Lower Mississippi
Valley with pockets/bands of moisture continuing to wrap around
the western flank into eastern OK and TX. Although the probability
of occurrence is low (~15%), we cannot completely rule out
additional light showers nudging into our forecast area from
southeast TX or southern OK this morning. Have introduced some
low PoPs along these borders to account for this potential.

This afternoon the area to watch will be south of I-20 where
subtle perturbations/impulses along the northern periphery of the
larger scale ridge will overlap the broad convergence occurring
along a diffuse surface boundary. Diurnal heating of the modestly
moist boundary layer (mid/upper 60s surface dewpoints) beneath
moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should support isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the absence of wind
shear, severe weather remains unlikely though the strongest cells
may still be capable of producing some gusty downburst winds. Any
activity ongoing during the afternoon should gradually diminish
through the evening with the loss of daytime heating.

With the mid level ridge suppressed slightly to the southwest,
North and Central Texas will be under the influence of northwest
flow aloft on Sunday, keeping highs mostly in the low to mid 90s.
As the upper-level trough located over the northeastern Pacific
digs along the West Coast on Monday the mid/upper level ridge will
be nudged back eastward reasserting dry and warmer than normal
conditions across the region. Morning lows will be in the mid 60s
to lower 70s on Monday with afternoon highs ranging from the upper
80s (east) to mid 90s (west).

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 248 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/
Update:
There is very little change to the long-term portion of the
forecast. Above-average temperatures and mostly sunny conditions
will persist through much of the work week across North and
Central Texas. We will be monitoring for a potential pattern
change in the late Friday-Saturday timeframe that could bring
increased rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures back to
the region. See the previous discussion below for more details.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Upcoming Week and Beyond/

Near to slightly above average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions can be expected for all of North and Central Texas
through the upcoming work week. Afternoon highs will generally
range between the low to mid 90s, with a few locations out west
approaching the upper 90s. It will feel much like a typical late
summer setup for most of the region, at least through the next
week or so. Overnight lows will stay warm and humid thanks to the
return of southerly flow at the surface and increased dew points,
hovering around the mid 70s each night. Rain chances will remain
low through the week, giving way to abnormally dry conditions. Our
flow pattern will continue to be dictated by weak upper level
ridging across the Southern Plains, keeping us in northwesterly
flow aloft. Widespread subsidence will keep the best rain chances
to our north and west, with low confidence in any showers or
storms reaching our area through much of the week ahead.

But there is potential for a pattern change next weekend! The
latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at a
breakdown of this upper level ridge, which would allow troughing
across the western and eastern CONUS to guide our weather
conditions. While confidence remains quite low regarding specifics
at this time, this would help to increase rain chances as we move
into the latter half of the month. This would also bring about
cooler temperatures for most of the region, reminding us that this
summer weather will eventually come to an end. Continue to check
back for updates to the forecast as details become more refined!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the next
24-30 hours. High clouds associated with moisture from Tropical
Storm Ileana are continuing to thin/scatter out this morning.

For DFW and surrounding airports...The prevailing easterly winds
may take on a more northerly component this afternoon (after 18Z)
before settling back out of the east/east-southeast this evening.
Wind speeds should remain at or below 10 kts maintaining flow
flexibility.

For Waco...Winds have become calm with area winds already
beginning to shift to the east-northeast. Wind speeds should
generally remain at or below 10 kts through the current TAF
period. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA may develop
south/west of ACT this afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface
boundary drifting southwest across the area.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  71  90  71  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                97  70  94  70  94 /  10  10   0   0   0
Paris               87  66  86  68  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              93  67  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  67  90  68  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              94  70  92  70  92 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             92  67  89  68  90 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           94  70  92  70  92 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              97  70  95  69  95 /  30  30   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       95  69  92  68  93 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$