Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
332 FXUS65 KGGW 182058 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 258 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Lots of rainfall in Petroleum and eastern Fergus counties (3 to 4+ inch amounts) with the latest storm, that will continue to give a heightened awareness for rising streams in mainly Petroleum County. 2) A High Wind Warning remains in effect for gusts to near 60 in Petroleum County through 9 pm. A Lake Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight tonight through 6 PM Thursday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A vertically stacked/occluded low pressure system over eastern Montana will continue to drift northeast tonight. The wrap-around rainfall over central Montana is expected to weaken as it passes over NE Montana tonight. NW winds will increase from SW to NE tonight as the low pulls away. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from Midnight tonight till 6 PM Thursday. On Thursday, the backside of the storm will exit with clearing from SW to NE. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees, but remain close to normal. A broad upper trough over western Canada will help to send in another cold front late Friday. This will allow for a cool down for the weekend. Shower chances should remain over the southern zones Friday Night. An upper ridge will build into area beginning Tuesday allowing for a warm up. Look for temps to return to above normal levels. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Didn`t stray from model consensus too much, but did blend with NBM90 for winds into this evening. && .AVIATION... Last Updated: 2030Z CATEGORY: Occasional MVFR tonight then becomes VFR Thursday. DISCUSSION: Light rainshowers will move northeast into the TAF sites later tonight and weaken but MVFR ceilings will follow. These ceilings are then expected to dissipate or lift Thursday. WINDS: A surface low moving NE across the TAF sites bringing a period of variable winds through early evening (till 03Z) will move to our northeast and NW winds will then increase tonight. Speeds of 10 to 20 knots are expected late tonight into Thursday morning before diminishing late in the day. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow