Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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822 FXUS63 KGID 171111 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 611 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy and warm today. Thunderstorms arrive from the west tonight. Western areas could see marginally severe winds (50-60 MPH) as storms move into the area. - Lingering storms on Wednesday morning, with possible redevelopment in the afternoon. A few of the potential afternoon storms could be strong to marginally severe. - Low rain/t-storm chances (10-30%) return for Friday, and become likely (60-70% chance) late Friday night through Saturday night. - Cooler next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track across the area early this morning. This activity should exit the area to the east by 8-9am, with dry conditions expected for the rest of the daytime. South winds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with peak wind gusts over 40 MPH expected for the northwestern half of the area. This afternoon, convection is expected to initially develop over CO/WY in response to the deep trough ejecting through the region. Models continue to indicate this quickly organizing into a eastward line of storms, likely producing severe winds. CAMs continue to indicate that storms will be on a weakening trend as they approach central KS/NE in the 9pm-midnight timeframe. The 00Z HREF neighborhood probabilities show a 50% chance for severe wind gusts over the Nebraska panhandle, but less than a 10% chance as they move east of North Platte. That being said, there is still some potential for some spotty strong to marginally severe wind gusts in western areas as storms arrive. This line of showers/storms then continues across the area, potentially lingering in eastern areas past sunrise. Remnant outflow could then could then provide a focus for a few thunderstorms to redevelop Wednesday afternoon. If these develop, the convective environment (MLCAPE ~2000j/kg and 0-6km shear 20-35kts) would support a few strong to severe storms. Thursday has continued to trend drier, with the latest NBM completely dry for the local area. The next system could bring us low chances for rain/t-storms as early as Friday afternoon/evening, but the most favorable timeframe will be as the main low moves through the area Saturday through Saturday night. Rain chances then gradually decrease Sunday through Monday as the system pushes northeastward and out of the area. Total QPF on the 00Z suite has remained pretty consistent. Over the next 7 days, the global "super" ensemble (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) shows a 50-80% chance for 1.00" or more of rain. Medium-range ensembles then continue to favor cooler-than-normal temperatures next week. Low temperatures in the 40s are likely for at least northwestern parts of the area many days next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 I kept LLWS for GRI for another hour as radar is still showing SW winds in the 35kt-40kt range near the SFC. Today will be breezy with southerly winds gusting in the low 30s kts this afternoon as a low pressure system will emerge out of the Rockies and we still have strong high pressure over Southern IL. Tonight a front will move across NE and along the front expect a line of TSRA. As the line of storms approaches LXN it will begin to weaken and become a little disorganized. Decided to VCTS with -SHRA as showers look more likely to impact TAF sites. Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to impact the TAF sites Friday night into Sunday. Long term models continue to struggle with placement of the low, and precipitation location and timing. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Beda