Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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904 FXUS63 KGID 162343 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 643 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some storms Tuesday evening and night may be strong to marginally severe with hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Southeast to south winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 25 to 40 mph are expected Tuesday afternoon. - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue with the highest chances Tuesday night (up to near 80%) and Friday night through Saturday (up to near 70%). - High temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected through Friday then temperatures will cool into the 60s and 70s over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Today and tonight... An upper level trough is over the western part of the country. Southeast to south winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s, and a shortwave trough is moving over the area. Showers and storms are expected to develop across portions of the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Severe weather is not expected. Rain and storm chances (up to 25%) continue into the evening and overnight hours. High temperatures today will mostly be in the 80s, and low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s. Tuesday and Tuesday night... The upper trough to the west will begin to move over the central Plains on Tuesday. The surface pressure gradient will tighten across the area in response to the approaching upper trough. Therefore, winds will strengthen out of the southeast to south on Tuesday sustained around 15 to 30 mph during the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Some showers and storms will be possible (up to around a 20% chance) during the morning hours on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Winds will decrease some Tuesday evening and overnight but may still be gusty. Chances of showers and storms will increase (up to near a 80% chance) Tuesday evening and night as the upper trough continues to move over the region. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally severe Tuesday evening and night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will generally be in the 60s. Wednesday through Thursday... Showers and storms will continue moving eastward Wednesday morning. Winds will be out of the southeast to south but are not expected to be as strong as the previous day. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a little cooler than the previous day but highs are still expected to be in the 80s. Chances of precipitation (less than 35%) continue into Wednesday night for eastern portions of the area. Low temperatures Wednesday night will mostly be in the 60s but some 50s are possible across far western portions of the area as winds switch to a more northwest to north direction. High temperatures on Thursday may be a little warmer than the previous day. Thursday night through Sunday night... Low temperatures Thursday night will cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s with winds out of the northeast to east. An upper trough will extend from Montana to the Desert Southwest on Friday. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be mostly in the 80s. Rain and storm chances increase up to around 35% Friday afternoon as a shortwave moves over the area from the approaching upper trough. The chances increase up to near 65% Friday night as a cold front approaches the area. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The cold front will continue to move through the area on Saturday with high temperatures in the 70s. Rain and storm chances (around 50% to near 70%) continue through the day on Saturday. Low temperatures Saturday night will mostly be in the 50s with a 30% to 60% chance of precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be even cooler on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Rain and storm chances will decrease on Sunday to 15% to 30%. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: This is a very tricky forecast with showers and thunderstorms moving across the area this evening and overnight. Of higher confidence is the winds, which will be generally out of the south through the TAF period. Gusts should diminish some late this evening and overnight but sustained winds will still be 12-15 kts. Tuesday morning sustained winds will increase to around 20 kts, and gusts will be around 25 kts in the morning before increasing to 30-35 kts Tuesday afternoon. Clouds will increase this evening and overnight, with a layer at 10k to 15k ft AGL and another at 20k-25k ft AGL. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area during this time, and included a VCTS for KEAR this evening as storms move in from the southwest, and another VCTS for KGRI overnight as storms may develop near KGRI (similar to last night). Clouds are expected to thin out around daybreak. While some model guidance indicates MVFR to IFR ceilings briefly around sunrise, confidence in this remains low so did not include in these TAFs. LLWS: Surface winds will remain a little strong to normally include LLWS, but there is strong enough confidence to include a period of LLWS at KEAR from 17/07Z to 17/12Z Tuesday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Schuldt