113
FXUS63 KGID 082106
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
406 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most severe thunderstorms should remain south of our forecast
  area this evening/tonight, but can not rule out a few severe
  storms as far north as our north central Kansas counties (8PM
  to 1AM).

- Mild dry weather for Sunday into Monday with highs in the
  upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Several mainly low end chances for showers/thunderstorms
  Monday night/Tuesday and again Thursday night/Saturday

- Warmer temperatures return on Wednesday and Thursday with
  highs back into the upper 80s and 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This evening/tonight severe weather threat...
After analyzing numerous forecast models it appears rather
evident that most of any strong to severe storms will primarily
track off to our south late this evening/tonight. These
thunderstorms are just now (4PM) beginning to form across
eastern Colorado and are expected to track east southeast
through the evening hours. We have very little instability
across our Nebraska zones and most of the instability today is
located across southern and central Kansas, with some modest
elevated instability as far north as northern Kansas. At this
point can not rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms
late this evening across north central Kansas, but am really
expecting most if not all of the severe storms to remain
southwest and south of our forecast area. Although we could
still see at least some showers and thunderstorms further north
across our area.

Sunday and Monday...
We`ll see a bit of an upper level ridge move across the plains
resulting in what should be a dry few days.

Monday Night - Tuesday...
Next upper trough moves through the plains, but with mixed
model output regarding rain chances. At this point it looks like
a low confidence more isolated chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...
Upper pattern is rather zonal and at this point dry, but with
warming conditions. NBM blend has us above normal with
widespread 90 plus temperatures by Thursday.

Friday - Saturday...
An upper trough begins to take shape across the western United
States bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the picture.
However, many questions remain regarding timing and strength of
this next trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

KGRI/KEAR TAFS:
We have some weak rain showers moving across central Nebraska
early this afternoon and then we expect some thunderstorms to
move in from the west later this evening. However, the
thunderstorms will be more numerous across Kansas, well south of
our TAF sites, with more isolated and weather showers and
thunderstorms around our TAF sites. Any evening showers and
thunderstorms will likely be southeast of our TAF sites after
midnight with dry weather expected for Sunday morning. Ceilings
will likely remain VFR and winds should consistently be out of
the northeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely