Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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799 FXUS63 KGID 211742 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening mainly along and north of I-80 after 6 PM. - There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms across portions of the area most evenings Monday through Thursday. - The warmup will continue today with highs in the 90s. The overall hottest day still appears to be Monday, with highs of 97-103 and heat index values in the 100-105 degree range. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 This Evening Severe Weather Potential... A cold front will sink southeast across the north central sandhills today with scattered multi-cell thunderstorms likely developing between 4-6 PM just the northeast of our forecast area and then moving into our area mainly after 6 PM. MLCAPE values will generally max out between 1,000-2,000 J/KG with deep layer shear values around 30 KTS. The best chance for severe weather will initially be just northwest of our forecast area (Custer County Area), but storms will slide northeast with time and perhaps into our northern zones. Thunderstorm chances will quickly decrease as you head south of Highway 6. Most of any storms should exit to the northeast of our area by around or not long after 3 AM. Be ready for a little more heat and humidity today pumped northward on gusty southerly winds at over 30 mph at times. Highs today will be back up into the lower 90s with heat index values into the mid 90s. Saturday and Sunday (Warm and Dry)... A cold front will swing through the region Saturday morning knocking high temperatures back down into the mid 80s for most Nebraska zones. However, the front will be slower to reach Kansas and thus Kansas zones could still climb back up into the 90s on Saturday. Northerly winds behind the front on Saturday will again become southerly by Sunday with warmer 90s spreading back across the region. The timing of the Saturday morning frontal passage is not very conducive for thunderstorms across our area. Any thunderstorms will most likely hold off until the front passes southeast of our area late Saturday afternoon/evening. Therefore, will continue to call for a dry weekend for most if not all of our forecast area. Monday through Thursday (Hot with Evening Thunderstorm Chances)... An upper level ridge fairly typical for the summer months will take shape across the southern/southwestern United States while weak shortwaves track quickly across the northern United States. Our area will at times be in the battle ground region on the northern periphery of the upper ridge possibly catching some evening thunderstorms that develop within the westerly to northwesterly upper level flow. It`s hard to time these subtle shortwaves this far out and thus NBM guidance is pretty low with our POPs at the present time. Expect some POPs to increase for next week while others days decrease as models get a better handle on timing out the weak shortwaves. At this point the main upper ridge appears to remain south or southwest of our area thus allowing us to still see continued off and on rain chances. We may come close to heat advisory criteria on Monday, but at this point it seems like heat advisory criteria is more likely to remain just south of our forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move through central Nebraska this evening...mainly 00-07Z. There is a low chance (20-40%) for MVFR ceilings mid to late Saturday morning. South winds continue this afternoon through the evening. Winds shift to the northwest on Saturday as a cold front moves through. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Mangels