785
FXUS63 KGID 222054
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
354 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding continues in some areas north of I-80 as a result of
  heavy rainfall Friday night.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday
  afternoon/evening and again Monday evening. Marginal risk for
  severe weather both of these days.

- Advisory-level heat (heat index 105+) is possible for portions
  of the area both Monday and Tuesday.

- More widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms return mid
  to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A cold front has moved through the forecast area, ushering in
breezy northwest winds and some pesky cloud cover. Despite this,
temperatures have still risen to near our climatological
normals in most locations (90s and low 90s). Skies continue to
clear this evening, and any thunderstorm development should
stay to our south...which is good news for areas that are still
experiencing runoff flooding from last night.

A warning trend starts on Sunday as upper ridging builds in from
the west. Southwestern portions of the area could push 100
degrees, and 90s are expected for most of the rest of the area.
CAMs show a few thunderstorms developing mid to late afternoon
over western portions of the area, but I expect coverage to
remain pretty isolated due to capping/warm midlevel
temperatures. Any storms that do develop would be able to tap
into MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40kts and
potentially produce some severe hail/wind.

Monday still appears to be the warmest day of the week, with the
entire area making a run into the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat
index values may reach/exceed advisory criteria (105 degrees) in
some spots. Again, there is a chance for a few spotty storms,
some of which could be marginally severe, late Monday afternoon
through the evening.

A front moves into the region on Tuesday, but timing of this
feature is still somewhat uncertain. The NBM has trended warmer
compared to 24 hours ago, and parts of our area (especially KS)
could see another day of 105+ heat indices.

Wednesday through Friday will be "cooler" as a series of
shortwave break down the upper ridge. That said, highs are
still expected to reach/exceed climo for much of the area each
of these days. These shortwaves will also bring us better
chances for more widespread rain/thunderstorms, especially
Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR conditions are ongoing at both terminals as low level
clouds continue to move into the region from the north. There
are some mid-level clouds moving in from the southeast, as seen
on visible satellite imagery. Ceilings will bounce around over
the next couple of hours as a few waves of lower clouds continue
to move through. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR late
this afternoon and into this evening. North winds remain around
10-15kts for the early part of this afternoon, falling under
12kts by mid-afternoon. Overnight, winds will become light and
variable, before switching to the south around 5-10kts by
sunrise. Expect the possibility of a few low to mid-level clouds
around sunrise, as some patchy fog or low stratus may move in.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Wekesser