501
FXUS63 KGID 232329
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20% chance of light showers or sprinkles overnight tonight as a
cold front moves from the northwest to southeast. There will be a
limited coverage of measurable rainfall accumulations.

- Highs this week will generally range in the mid to upper 70s with
a chance to reach the low 80s by the end of the week.

- The next best chance of rain (20%) will fall Friday for the south
and east portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Tonight through Tomorrow morning...

The quick cooldown from yesterday has knocked the regional maximum
temperatures down this week a few degrees from last (generally from
the mid 80s to upper 80s down to the mid to upper 70s). This falls
as the shortwave trough aloft moved out of the area. At the surface,
high pressure around from Sunday with upper level sinking on the
upstream side of the departing trough will keep the rest of the day
dry and clear. Highs will remain in the lower 70s today with
overnight lows in the low to mid 50s (10-15 degrees warmer from this
morning).

A sinking cold front overnight may bring a quick shower or sprinkle
to the area after 11PM. Chances (15-20%) will start in the NW and
will side south and east through the night. Measurable rainfall
amounts will be limited. A few clouds in the morning will eventually
scatter out to high level ice clouds later in the day. Light
southerly winds tonight will switch to the north behind the front.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

A ridge popping out from a rex block along the Pacific coast will
send a northerly jet stream across our region Tuesday. Light winds at
the surface (8 to 12 MPH) occasionally gusting as high as 16 MPH will
additionally start out from the north-northwest. High pressure at the
surface combined with the downstream eastward propagation of the mid
to upper level ridge will limit any precipitation chance through at
least Thursday. Once the last bits of high thin and wispy clouds
manage to scroll out Tuesday evening, the unfiltered sun will work to
keep temperatures stable for the week in the mid to upper 70s and
even occasionally approaching the lower 80s. Quiet weather should
follow into Wednesday with clear skies leading the way. Highs will
generally start in the upper 70s, a few degrees warmer from Tuesday.

The lack of moisture this week, typical for this time of year, will
keep the minimum relative humidity mainly between 35% and 45% in the
daytime. Fire weather concerns currently remain low, but on careful
watch for any further bottoming of the RH values or for intensification
of winds later on in the week.

Thursday through Friday...

The upper level flow will stall Thursday as it becomes sandwiched
between the upper level ridge and a pinching cut off low. This low
will start centered over Arkansas, potentially retrograding westward
some on Thursday. The placement of this low by Friday will affect
our next precipitation chance (20%). Currently uncertainty lies with
where the Gulf developing tropical system will eventually make
landfall. The positioning of the low and the tropical activity will
control how effective the moisture transport will be up and around
to the northwest side of the cutoff low. Chances remain virtually
non-existent (<15%) for a majority of the area with 20% pops on our
south and east edges.

Saturday and beyond...

Temperatures may edge up to the lower 80s for parts of the area over
the weekend with a potential wobble in temperatures to start next
week. A few long range guidance models are showing the potential for
a relatively strong cold front to swing in through early next week.
If this scenario plays out, a notable drop in temperatures as well as
the next best area wide precipitation chance could be possible. The
Climate Prediction Centers guidance however, suggests a continuation
of dryer weather with just above average temperatures to end off
September.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period...can`t totally
rule out some sprinkles/light showers passing through as a
disturbance swings across the region. Coverage looks isolated-
scattered, so kept mention going as VCSH. This disturbance will
also be pushing a cool front through the area...and while winds
turn more light/variable this evening into the overnight hours,
this front will usher in north-northwesterly winds in from
around sunrise on through the day. Gusts near 25 MPH will be
possible from around late morning on through the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP