Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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693 FXUS65 KGJT 180752 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 152 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions will remain dry and cooler than normal through late Friday. - The next system arrives on Saturday bringing scattered showers and a reinforcing shot of cooler air. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The system that brought active weather yesterday is lifting out over the northern Plains. Another low pressure is dropping southward along the West Coast. In between the two systems is quiet weather and cooler than normal temperatures. With mainly clear skies and light winds some locations may see freezing temperatures this morning. Winds increase later today across the north along with some cloud cover possible as well. Tomorrow the low pressure moves over central California giving us southwest flow aloft. This will warm temperatures by a few degrees, but conditions remain dry. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 405 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Models were in good agreement Thursday morning with the Pacific low turning inland south of San Francisco tracking for northern Arizona. Though they continue to agree on the track of the low across northern Arizona before ejecting to the northeast across the Four Corners and southern Colorado and out onto the Plains, they diverge on the timing with the GFS and Canadian models putting the low over the Four Corners Saturday morning and the European running about nine hours behind. The ensemble means show a similar timing difference with a lot of dispersion among the members, so positioning of both models lay within the margin of error. Guidance is leaning more to the GFS solution with the faster track. This system carries a little moisture with it, 0.5 to 0.6 inches pwat, enough to spawn isolated nocturnal storms over the southern and central mountains overnight Friday, spreading north into the northern Colorado mountains Saturday morning. Coverage along the Divide in the central and northern Colorado mountains becomes more scattered to numerous in the afternoon as moisture from the Front Range wraps around the low. A few showers may linger along the Divide overnight Saturday before coming to an end Sunday as the low pushes east out of Colorado. Beyond Sunday, models diverge wildly, but generally agree on ridging building in along the Rockies. Temperatures will be near normal Thursday and Friday, cooling three to five degrees below normal Saturday with the trough passage and slowly warming back to normal Monday and Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 143 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions are in place with with winds finally settling down to lighter drainage patterns. Winds will remain relatively light though a few gusts near 25 mph could occur by peak heating hours on tomorrow and persist through sunset. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...TGJT