036
FNUS75 KGJT 271828
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Beaver Basin...MIFC
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1228 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 MDT on June 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...Flood Watch in effect through midnight...
...Potential for severe thunderstorms producing large hail and
strong winds through this evening...

.DISCUSSION...A deep surge of subtropical moisture is expected to
generate widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
through this evening. Excessive rain and severe storms are
possible with potential outflow winds to 60 mph or higher and
hail to 1 inch in diameter. Relative humidity will be unseasonably
high with a good chance for wetting rain over some parts of the
project area. Drying begins Friday, though isolated storms are
possible over surrounding higher terrain.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers
                    and thunderstorms likely.
CWR.................50 percent.
Max temperature.....76-81.
Min humidity........37-42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................4 until 1500, then 5.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL at peak heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 mph.
Clearing Index......1000+.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight.
CWR.................40 percent.
Min temperature.....52-57.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph becoming downslope
                    4 to 8 mph after 2200. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4000-17000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................4 until 2300, then 2 until 0500, then 1.
Mixing height.......Lowering to 1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 mph.
Clearing Index......Lowering to 170.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). A slight chance for
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....78-83.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair, increasing to excellent in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 9100 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 19 mph.
Clearing Index......1000+ in the afternoon.

$$

Forecaster...Norv Larson
Requested by...Wendy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416822.0/GJT
.DELDT 06/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL utmfc@firenet.gov