910
FXUS63 KGLD 240822
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
222 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers tonight into
  Tuesday morning.

- Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Across the CWA this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure
transitions through the area. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are
ranging in the 70s with light/variable winds.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will focus on shower
potential later this evening into early Tuesday morning as a surface
trough/weak shortwave move southeast through the area. The system is
currently over NW Nebraska and points north. The latest CAMs
(NamNest/HRRR) show scattered 15-20% chances for RW to begin around
03z Tuesday, pushing through the region by 12z Tuesday. Weak
instability, low PW values as dewpts are currently in the 40s but
will drop further into the 20s overnight. This is seen on the
current obs near/behind the boundary. This will result in little
change from previous forecast with best precip chances in the
E/NE.

Going into Tuesday, looking for a decent northerly gradient ahead of
a surface ridge behind the system coming through. LAV guidance
suggests 20-25 mph possible around midday, but could be isolated.
Other than this, high pressure will dominate the area for dry
weather.

For temps, a range from the upper 70s into the lower 80s will
persist in the short term period, especially around midweek. The
trend will have western locales be the warmest. Lows in the 50s
tonight will give way to 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

As we move into the weekend, a broad ridge will extend across
the Central to SW portions of North America in a semi-omega
pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF favor cut-off or closed lows
developing on the southern ends of upper troughs that will pinch
the side of the ridge closer over the Rockies and Great Plains.
This pattern will unfortunately lead to dry conditions most
likely through early next week. There is a cutoff system that
sets up over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This system
does meander and retrograde some late in the week. The ECMWF
shows the best potential for some increased moisture to work
towards the eastern CWA, but the overall trend keeps this east
of the area. Late Monday into Tuesday morning, a cold front is
expected to move south across the Central Plains. Precipitation
is not expected with this front, but cooler temperatures are
possible given the cold air advection moving in behind it.

Temperatures through Monday are expected to be slightly above
average for the highs and lows. High temperatures have been
fluctuating between the mid 70s to lower 80s each day. Overnight
lows could be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Near normal temperatures
are possible on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
southwest wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the
northwest through sunrise at speeds up to 10kts. Winds will be
northerly with gusts to around 20kts from 16z-22z, falling below
12kts by 23z then light and variable after 02z.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will become northwesterly at
speeds up to 10kts around 14z. Northerly winds gusting up to
20kts or so are anticipated from around 18z-21z. After 02z,
winds become light and variable. Sprinkles or light rain
showers are possible over the terminal from around 07z-11z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...99