213
FXUS63 KGLD 121929
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
129 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot today and Thursday with high temperatures in the
  upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances today, with slightly better
  chances Thursday evening/night. Some severe storms are
  possible.

- Thunderstorm chances increase on Friday, with a risk for
  severe storms as well as heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
  especially Friday night.

- Return of triple digit heat is expected Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Across the region this afternoon, sunny and hot conditions persist
area-wide. Temperatures are currently ranging in the 90s as of 100
PM MDT. there is a surface trough currently traversing the area,
providing a southerly fetch for areas east of Highway 25, and a west-
northwest flow behind it. Gusts around 30 mph are occurring on
either side of the boundary.

Weather concerns in the short term will focus on some isolated
rw/trw potential this evening and again later tonight. This will be
followed by a chance for severe storms Thursday afternoon/evening.

First off, a surface trough has been slowly traversing the CWA
through the day and is currently pushing through the Highway 25
area, based on current wind regime. East of there, especially for
locales east of Highway 83, there still remains some decent dewpts
in the lower to mid 60s. While currently stable, DCape values on
soundings does show some instability, so have followed the NamNest
and continued a 15 pop for isolated coverage in the southeast(Gove.
Sheridan/Graham counties mainly). Any storms could produce some
strong gusts with inverted-v profiles.

With a strong ridge aloft over the south-central Rockies providing
westerly downslope flow to aid in this warmup, guidance puts a weak
shortwave over the north/east portion of the ridge towards the 06z-
09z Thursday timeframe up into portion of northeast Colorado. With
weak instability/moisture available, continued isolated wording for
a 15 pop for a rw/trw. Winds would be main threat concern.

Going into thursday, the aforementioned upper ridge begins a slow
trek eastward into the southern Plains for afternoon/evening hours.
This will allow a stronger shortwave to work off the central Rockies
during the afternoon hours, and interact with a surface low over
southeast Colorado, with a front extending eastward into Kansas.
CAMs are showing rw/trw potential to develop from west to east over
the CWA. Strong to severe storms are expected. Current guidance has
DCape values around 1800-2000 j/kg by 21z. MUCape/SBCape values are
around 1700-1900 j/kg. As a result, SPC now has much of the tri-
state region under a Marginal Risk for severe storm, with hail and
wind main threats. The activity does diminish from west to east
overnight.

For temps, looking for lows tonight to drop into a range from the
lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25, into the mid and upper 60s east
of Highway 25. A few locales east of Highway 83 may only drop into
the 70F range. Going into Thursday, another hot day(850 mb temps
+28c to +33c before front gets established) on tap with daytime
highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Hottest areas along/south of I-
70. This will give way to overnight lows Thursday night in a range
from the lower 60s west into the upper 60s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Friday morning, the Tri-State area will start out under a strong
250mb ridge with a closed low over the Four Corners region. As the
day progresses, the low will move to the east-northeast and move
over the CWA Saturday mid-day. This will give the region an
organized system to produce storms Friday and into Saturday. In the
lower-levels, an 850mb high will be sitting over the Mississippi
River Valley working to fuel the LLJ and bring moisture into the
region. This setup is not looking to be as strong as what we had a
couple of weeks ago, but the increased moisture will cause some
concern for flooding with the storms.

As far as severe parameters, we could see anywhere from 3,000 to
4,500 J/kg MUCAPE, PWATS above 1.25 inches, exceeding convective
temperatures, LCLs around 2-2.5 km, and EBWD shear around 20-25 kts.
This type of environment would be supportive of hail, strong winds,
and heavy rainfall. The biggest limiting factor, according to the
forecast parameters, would be the shear, it`s a bit on the low side.
The shear is low due to fairly light winds in the mid-layer (10-20
kts between 300-500 mb). We could see clusters of cells that form
off of each other and become an MCS type event. The precipitation
could last into mid-day Saturday, or even kick start some additional
precipitation Saturday evening.

Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak
southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% daily
chance of precipitation due to shortwaves in the evenings, but
nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is
disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around this time, the pressure
gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther
inland. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase
chances for PoPs. By mid-next week, we could see the low moving into
the Great Plains and sending a cold front through the region. This
would spark up some storms, but more importantly, it would start
cooling temperatures down some.

High temperatures until mid-next week look to be in the low 90s to
low 100s. After the cold front moves through, around Tuesday, we
will likely only warm into the 80s. Overnight temperatures will
follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s each night, save for
Sunday night. Sunday night, additional cloud cover and fairly strong
winds from the south are expected to keep temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s. Gusts overnight could get up to 30 kts. Behind the
cold front, lows will cool down into the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 959 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
north-northwest 10-20kts. Strongest gusts before 23z. By 03z
Thursday, southeast around 10kts, shifting southwest by 08z
Thursday.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
west-northwest 10-20kts through 02z Thursday, then
light/variable. By 13z, becoming northwest around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN