Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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459 FXUS63 KGLD 241831 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up to 106 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to air temperatures today and Tuesday. Today and Tuesday have Heat Advisories in effect. - Chances for storms each day. - Near Critical fire weather conditions possible in eastern Colorado Tuesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Across the region this morning, skies are clear with a southerly flow area-wide and temperatures as of 300 AM MDT mainly in the 70s east of the Colorado border, and 60s west. The main wx concerns for the short term period will focus on the threat for severe thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Also, hot and above normal persistent temperatures will create dangerous heat indices. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is currently showing a broad dome of high pressure stretching from the Rockies into the Plains region. This is resulting in a zonal flow aloft. GFS/NAM guidance is continuing to show the ridge will amplify into the Rockies going into Tuesday and Wednesday, eventually shifting into the Plains region thereafter. There will be a couple weak 500/700mb shortwaves that will work through the ridge during the short term period. At the surface, there is currently a trough extending south along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. This will work east off the Front Range later today and slowly move through the CWA. Southerly flow during the day will slowly transition to northerly overnight ahead of another low set to work into the Front Range area. This low will push slowly south Tuesday night as a ridge pushes in from the north. With this, conditions remain intact from previous forecast to continue the Heat Advisory for the eastern CWA as reading will hit the 103-106 mark for heat indices, with highs fairly close to this. West of this, not much cooler, but less humidity. Drier air works into the area Tuesday with the focus in Graham/Norton counties to see Heat Advisory criteria to be met, so have issued an Advisory there. Same timeframe as today, 18z-01z. Slightly cooler for Wednesday with E/SE surface flow, so not expecting heat indices to require an Advisory issuance. Also, the slightly drier conditions in the west will bring about elevated to near critical fire wx conditions for locales along/west of Highway 27. This will occur Mon-Tue. Finally, the passage of weak shortwaves will trigger scatter convection each afternoon/evening. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk for today to areas along/east of Highway 25. Tuesday, Highway 83 and points east, and for Wednesday the entire CWA looks prone. Wednesday will see more instability as the southeast surface flow will usher in increased low level moisture. the hot temps for mon- Tue will create mainly wind threats do to the drier low level, but Wednesday hail and wind threats are possible. The increased moisture has prompted a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC, so locally heavy rainfall could be an issue. For temps, highs today will range in the lower to mid 100s with hottest areas along/east of Highway 25. Going into Tuesday, highs will range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. And for Wednesday, slightly cooler with lower to mid 90s expected. Please refer to the updated Climate section below for information on record highs for the area for today. This afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, the hot above normal temperatures combined with area humidity will create dangerous heat indices. These will focused for eastern areas today with readings 103-106. Western areas will see 100-103. Tuesday will have the highest readings(100-105) along and east of Highway 25. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s west into the mid 70s east. Thereafter, Tuesday and Wednesday nights will see a range in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The upper-level ridge looks to remain in place over Texas for the long-term, potentially moving a bit farther east over the weekend, but retrograding Sunday evening. A 250mb low pressure system over northern Montana will cut into the high and cause a southwesterly jet over the northern Rockies Friday. These features look to move east throughout the day, but could interact with our area enough to produce some showers and storms Friday afternoon. Saturday will see the flow return to zonal as the trough and low move out of the area to the east. A weak 500mb shortwave looks to provide us forcing for diurnal showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Sunday looks less likely for convection due to the 250mb ridge returning to the area by Sunday evening. Guidance is showing a pretty strong signal that another trough will work into the northwestern CONUS Monday, causing southwesterly flow during the mid-day Monday. This trough could cause enough forcing, and remove the ridge just long enough, to cause some moderately organized convection Monday afternoon and evening, but there is a lot of uncertainty this far out. A far as temperatures, Saturday looks to be the coolest, with highs in the low to mid 80s with Sunday being about 5 degrees warmer. For Friday and Monday, 90s to near 100 high temperatures look likely. Monday has potential for being the next very hot day. Overnight temperatures will only cool into the 60s, with Saturday night being the coolest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southerly wind under 11kts at taf issuance will continue through about 00z. Tonight, east to southeast winds up to 11kts through 06z veer back to the south to southwest at similar speeds. Tuesday morning, winds continue to veer to the northwest at speeds up to 11kts. Regarding thunderstorm chances, they are possible in/near the terminal from roughly 20z-04z. The primary hazard will be strong and sudden outflow wind gusts up to 55kts or so. Given the isolated nature of the activity, will not include a mention in the taf forecast at this time. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southerly wind up to 11kts is expected through about 02z. Tonight, southeast winds under 10kts become light and variable. Tuesday morning, winds veer to the west then northwest at speeds under 10kts. Regarding thunderstorm chances, highest confidence in them in/near the terminal is from 23z-03z. Similar to KGLD, primary hazard is strong and sudden outflow wind gusts up to 55kts or so. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Dry conditions are expected over western portions of the Tri State area this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. The main area of focus each day will be those locales along/west of Highway 27. Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions will crop up in these areas as humidity will lower into the mid and upper teens. Winds will not reach criteria, but up to 20 mph could occur at times. There will be southerly flow this afternoon, but a shift to northerly on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 With hot conditions expected over the area today, with highs at least 100F to 106F, there could be some locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected forecast. Monday, 6/24 Goodland KS 109F in 2012 Burlington CO 107F in 1954 Hill City KS 114F in 2012 McCook NE 107F in 1943 Colby KS 107F in 2012 Tribune KS 109F in 2012 Yuma CO 103F in 2002 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004- 014>016-028-029. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ004-016. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER... CLIMATE...