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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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782 FXUS63 KGLD 300346 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 946 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low confidence with regard to thunderstorm development tonight and Sunday night. - Much cooler highs Sunday due to cloud cover all day. - Hot weather returns Monday behind a warm front. However highs are not as hot. - Chances for storms each day, mainly during the evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Latest upper air analysis shows nearly zonal flow over the central Plains. Pockets of higher water vapor were moving through this flow, leading to cloud cover. At the surface winds were breezy from the northeast. A surface high pressure was located over Wyoming. For the rest of the afternoon the surface high pressure will slide southeast across Nebraska, causing the winds to turn to the southeast. As the high pressure approaches winds will decline. This evening a weaker upper level short wave trough will move over the forecast area from the west. The latest model runs have slightly delayed the arrival of the upper level short wave trough. (This is in line with the delayed trend in storm arrival of the last few days.) Models are now keeping the cold front well south of the forecast area during the night. However the low level jet will strength over the front and into the forecast area. This will provide low level moisture advection ahead of the approaching upper level short wave trough. Both the NAM and RAP models are suggesting elevated instability will be present with in this part of the forecast area. In addition there does look to be a weak LLJ nose over the southern part of the forecast area. Am thinking scattered storms should form ahead of the approaching upper level short wave trough around midnight, then gradually spread east-northeast ahead of the short wave trough. Storms will be moving around 15 MPH, which may lead to heavy rainfall given the precipitable water values of over an inch in that part of the forecast area. The storm activity may last well into Sunday morning. At this time confidence for severe weather occurring over the southern part of the forecast area is low (30%). This is due to the midlevel lapse rates being around 6C/km and deep layer shear being 25-30kts. Strong thunderstorms seem more likely in this environment. If severe thunderstorms were to form, quarter size hail would be the main threat. The highest elevated instability will be around midnight. This threat area may shift north or south, however the latest model run has shifted the elevated instability south. Meanwhile the continued moisture advection from the LLJ will bring in low clouds from the south. These will start from the CO/KS border then gradually expand eastward through the overnight hours. The surface high over Nebraska will also aid in advecting moisture over the forecast area. Sunday morning the upper level short wave trough will continue to move across the southeast part of the forecast area. Elevated instability will continue to decline. Storm activity should be east of Graham County by noon, if not before. Sunday afternoon an upper level short wave ridge will move in from the west. By this time the surface high pressure will be Central Nebraska into Central Kansas. Moisture advection will continue. Soundings show atleast a broken, if not overcast cloud deck over the forecast area through the day. The exception will be East Central CO where the moisture advection will be less, allowing the clouds to break up during the afternoon. Lowered highs a few more degrees for the afternoon, mainly east of CO. The 25th percentile high temperature forecast is in the low/mid 70s for this part of the forecast area. Based on this the current forecast seems representative. Sunday night another upper level short wave trough will move in from the west. By this time the ridge has shifted more to the west, pushing the upper level flow slightly more to the north. During the evening there may be some low level convergence from the LLJ over the northwest part of the forecast area as the short wave trough moves through. This convergence then shifts to the northern part of the forecast area, moving with the upper level short wave trough. Models show deep layer shear of 40 kts and midlevel lapse rates around 7C/km. The current data supports the potential for storms to become severe given the elevated instability could occur. However, the elevated instability is highly dependent on how warm will 800- 700mb layer be and how high will the dew points be in that layer. The HREF has not strong storms in the forecast area at this point. For now this bears watching as strong to severe elevated thunderstorms could occur. However confidence is low (20%) for them to occur given how much could change with the small details regarding the low level temperature and moisture advection. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Monday the front will move back through as a warm front. Models have shifted the upper level ridge slightly more to the east. This move has also shifted where the dome of hottest temperatures will be, resulting in highs not being as hot for the forecast area. Heat index values are now around 100F instead of 105F. During the latter part of the afternoon a stronger upper level short wave trough will move into the forecast area from the west. Midlevel lapse rates sharply decline behind the trough, suggesting there maybe a narrow window for strong to severe thunderstorms to form. Monday night the storm activity will move east across the forecast area. A band of frontogenesis accompanies the trough across the forecast area, mainly over the northern half of the forecast area. As such, have the best chances for rainfall there. Tuesday through Saturday evening chances for rainfall each day are forecast as upper level short wave troughs move over the forecast area. The upper level ridge will shift west and become centered over the Desert Southwest. This will shift the storm track to be from the northwest over the forecast area. Rainfall chances during this timeframe seem high, which may be due to the monsoonal moisture moving over the forecast area. Wouldn`t be surprised if the rainfall chances end up lowering as we move through the week. Due to the ridge ridge shifting west of the forecast area, highs will not be as hot. The coolest temperatures are Friday when a stronger upper level short wave trough rounds the ridge and brings a cold front with it. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 GLD: VFR conditions will prevail this evening/overnight. MVFR ceilings are anticipated to rapidly develop around or shortly after sunrise (~12-14Z). Deterioration to IFR is expected thereafter, during the mid-late morning. While some improvement to MVFR is expected during the afternoon, ceilings will likely deteriorate to IFR-LIFR around or shortly after sunset Sunday evening, near the end of the TAF period. Easterly winds at 7-13 knots (this evening) will gradually veer to the SE (overnight) and SSE (Sunday morning).. increasing to 15-25 knots during the day. MCK: VFR conditions will prevail this evening/overnight.. and through much (or all) of Sunday morning. Borderline VFR-MVFR ceilings (~2500-3500 ft AGL) are anticipated to develop by early afternoon (~16-19Z) and persist throughout the day. Ceilings will likely deteriorate to low-end MVFR or IFR a few hours after sunset Sunday evening, near the end of the TAF period. Easterly winds at 6-12 knots (this evening) will gradually veer to the SE (overnight) and SSE (Sunday afternoon).. increasing to 15-20 knots by mid-late afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...Vincent