084
FXUS63 KGLD 281636
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1036 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the area
  late Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are
  possible. At this time, brief/localized instances of damaging
  wind appear to be the primary hazard.

- Cooler this weekend with some shower and storm chances.

- Heat returns Monday with low triple temperatures currently
  forecasted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Shortwave, that was delayed that hurt earlier convection is finally
moving across the area with an area of showers and embedded storms
moving into western Yuma county currently. Some further south
development towards the I-70 corridor is possible through sunrise.

For today another challenging convective forecast is on tap as we
remain in relatively the same pattern as the previous two days. The
main difference with today is that a surface trough will sag into
the area from the north during the afternoon hours which will create
a better forcing mechanism for potential storm development. There is
however some concern whether or not storms will be able to maintain
themselves or if they can reach their full potential as dry air will
be present at the surface; there is also the lack of upper level
support which has been a somewhat mitigating factor these past few
days.

Current thinking is that storms will begin to initiate in
northeast Colorado/Nebraska panhandle along the trough with new
hit and miss cells developing the further south into SW
Nebraska/NW Kansas through the afternoon. Different from the
past few days will be that wind shear will be quite a bit
stronger around 40-45 knots and that we shouldn`t have to deal
with stratus hindering instability. Due to the concerns with the
dry air at the surface there is again questions if storms can
maintain themselves. As for hazards for the day am thinking that
damaging winds around 70 mph along with some localized
instances of 80+ mph are all on the table especially with
inverted v soundings. There is also the potential that these
winds can come with decaying storms in the form of severe
downbursts or even microbursts. There is also some hail threat
as well bit is a bit more conditional and should remained
confined to if a cell can mature and maintain itself. Overall
CAPE itself is rather meager around 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE but
given the strong shear should a discrete long lived storm
maintain itself then the hail could remain aloft in the updraft
longer.

As of current data am thinking that the relative best potential to
see severe weather will be across east portions of the area roughly
along and east of a McCook to Oakley line. Nearly all guidance
suggests that moisture return will ramp up quickly after 00Z
which should be about the time that storms should be moving into
the area. This is also being favored by the RAP with having the
best 700-500mb moisture present. Severe threat elsewhere across
the area should be more isolated should it happen. Storms
should be out of the area by 06Z.

Temperatures for the day will be similar to what was seen
yesterday with highs in the 90s. Luckily though humidity will be
a bit lower keeping the muggy conditions at bay. Will then be
watching as a cold front moves south into the area overnight
which may bring some low stratus or even some transient fog
through the area into Saturday morning.

Saturday currently looks to be more tranquil as the area looks to be
post frontal which will bring high temperatures in the 80s for
highs. Keeping the good majority of the area dry for the day as mid
level ridging will be present across the region. The exceptions will
be western portions of eastern Colorado where a disturbance may clip
those areas. At this time not expecting any severe weather during
the day as the best instability looks to lie across
southern/southwestern Kansas.

Saturday night however will see the cold front retreat back to the
north as a warm front which does look to bring shower and storm
chances moving south to north up towards the I-70 corridor. Increase
in mid level moisture looks to be present as well so will need to
monitor for an overnight hail potential mainly along and south of
Highway 40.

Sunday at this time appears to be a tricky temperature
forecast. Guidance suggests that stratus and perhaps drizzle/fog
may persist through the majority of the day across eastern
portions of the area. In fact the NAM has Hill City and McCook
struggling to get to the mid 60s to for highs. I`m not going
that extreme at this time but current forecasted highs in the
low 80s seems reasonable. A developing trough across the Inter-
Mountain west will lead to a tight pressure gradient near the
KS/CO line bring breezy southerly winds. Moisture will remain
in place so no fire weather concerns given the breezy winds.
Monsoonal moisture looks to ride the redeveloping surface high
into the area which may bring the chance for some showers and
storms. Have capped pops at 30% due to concerns of the extent of
the surface high which would increase subsidence hurting our
rain chances. If the high is further south then perhaps the
chance of precipitation will increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The southern ridge will loosen its grip as a shortwave trough
moves through the northern and central plains Monday and
Tuesday. Weak troughing continues on Wednesday before
transitioning to a northwest flow late in the week as a ridge
begins to strengthen in the Great Basin. Shower and thunderstorm
chances continue each day through the period, either associated
with the upper trough and its surface cold front early in the
period, or weak waves in the northwest flow later in the period.
Some severe chances can be expected with deep layer shear
varying between 30-50 kts each day, though instability tends to
be generally weak to occasionally moderate. Temperatures will
start out hot with triple digits on Monday, followed by less hot
but still above normal temperatures, mainly in the 90s, Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period, with some
VCTS possible from 00z-03z Saturday. Winds, northwest 10-15kts
becoming northeast by 00z. A period of a few hours back to the
northwest 5-10kts then from 13z onward northeast 15-25kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period, with some
VCTS possible from 01z-04z Saturday. Winds, meandering from
northwest to the northeast 5-15kts. A period of light/variable
is expected from 04z-09z Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN