Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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716 FXUS63 KGLD 290909 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 309 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front passage today leads to cooler temperatures. - Cold front early Sunday morning retreats as a warm front with showers and storms; heavy to torrential rain possible. - Daily chances for storms continues Sunday through the next week. - Triple digit temperatures Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 306 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Convection ongoing mainly south of I-70 is being aided by the LLJ does look to continue through around sunrise. No hazards are currently anticipated other than heavy rainfall and some gusty winds around 40 mph. Storms have been precipitation loaded, causing some locales to see torrential rainfall with KDP values in excess of 10. Currently watching a front move into the area from the north and will move south through the morning hours. RAP has been consistently showing a transient period of fog, locally dense is possible followed by stratus behind the front so have added in a quick moving area of fog that is currently forecast to be out of the area (Greeley, Wichita counties) by late morning. Cooler temperatures in the 80s are currently forecasted across the entire area today. RAP has been showing some 700-500 mb moisture moving into SE portions of the area which may support some quick pop up showers this afternoon which given the lack of any forcing will be quick in duration and not amount to more than a hundredth or two of precipitation at best. Due to spotty nature of this signal thus far have silent pops in the forecast. Tonight, the cold front looks to retreat back north as a warm front. Some subtle 700mb forcing along the leading edge of the front looks to develop scattered to numerous storms along the front. Increasing lapse rates as well overnight may support some hail threat with the strongest storms but due to the overall lack of CAPE and meager shear think nickel sized hail would be the max hail size. Very heavy to torrential rain looks to occur as well as winds will become southeasterly allowing a strong amount of moisture return to move into the area. Sunday morning, the atmosphere stabilizes in a widespread area of stratus and perhaps some localized fog. Currently leading towards stratus as winds will be above 10 mph. Soundings look to be very saturated throughout the profile with the exception of some drier air around the 700 mb level which looks to create light rain or just drizzle throughout the majority of the day for those east of Highway 27 and south of I70. RAP surface and 850mb RH values look to remain nearly saturated throughout the duration of the day which should help keep the stratus thick and temperatures cool as a result. Have begun the trend of lowering temperatures across the east down into the mid to upper 70s. There may be some breaks in the clouds during the late afternoon/early evening hours which would let the temperature rise some. If these breaks don`t happen then highs may need to be lowered even more, interestingly enough the NAM is still keeping highs across the east only in the mid 60s. Some record coldest high temperatures may be in jeopardy if the stratus does indeed hold thick. There does continue to be some variations of where the western periphery of the stratus deck will lie; those that are not in stratus will continue to see the strong moisture advection move into the area as a surface high across the southern Plain/SW Kansas begins to redevelop. A developing trough across the Inter-Mountain west will lead to a tight gradient developing which may end up being the stratus line. A 700 mb shortwave off of the Rockies looks to develop showers and storms off of the Front Range and looks to move towards the Colorado Plains. Wind shear will be supportive of some organization of storms especially the further west towards the Front Range you go, however there may be a narrow plume of better instabilty across eastern Colorado where storms may become more intense as they ride around the surface high. So the main question for coverage will be how amplified will the surface high be. A more amplified high would lead to more subsidence leading to less storms, less amplified would lead to more storms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Both the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to upper level ridging at 500mb stretched across the southern portion of the country, amplifying some by the end of next week. This will allow for W/NW flow aloft giving way to SW flow aloft late in the period. The passage of several shortwaves along the northern periphery of the ridge will interact with a surface low and associated front that will meander through the CWA and eventually settling south of the CWA. Both sets of guidance are showing a bit different set of areal coverage for rw/trw, but the overall consensus will be the chance(20- 40%) for late afternoon precipitation, as the evening hours will promote higher chances(40-60%) for storms. As with the past several days, the above normal temps as fueled dry conditions during the daytime hours, allowing for sunset/evening convection chances. Can`t rule out some strong to severe cells to impacts areas, along with some localized heavy rainfall with PW values 1-1.5" early in the week, with a 1-1.2" range for the latter portion. For temps, highs on Monday will range in the upper 90s over northeast Colorado into the low 100s for locales east of the Colorado border. For next Tuesday onward, mainly 90s expected each day, with areas along/west of Highway 27 seeing some mid and upper 80s mix in, especially for northeast Colorado. With Monday having much of the region seeing at least 100 degrees, some high heat indices are possible. With the area being dry for most of the daytime hours, low RH will be present. Areas along/east of Highway 83, especially Graham and Norton counties could have enough moisture present to give some readings in the 100-103 range. West of this, readings will be at/below forecasted highs. Conditions will be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory issuance if warranted. Overnight lows will mainly range in the 60s for most of the periods, but Monday night could have 70s present for areas along/east of Highway 83. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1010 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Aside from a potential for sub-VFR conditions associated with thunderstorms at both terminals late this evening into tonight (~06-09Z).. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Aside from gusty/erratic winds invof any thunderstorms.. winds will remain light/variable this evening and overnight. Around or shortly after sunrise, winds are expected to abruptly shift to the N-NNE and increase to 15-25 knots (GLD) or ~12-18 knots (MCK). Northerly winds will veer toward the northeast and decrease to 7-12 knots by early afternoon.. remaining light and further veering to the east by the end of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...BV