204
FXUS63 KGLD 050404
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1004 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and hot with highs in the 90s Wednesday.

- A return to a more active weather pattern Friday night through
  Monday night as weather systems move off the Colorado front
  range and into the Tri-State area each afternoon through
  overnight hours.

- Hot with highs in the 90s Friday then cooling closer to normal
  highs for early June in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Tonight...a generally clear sky is expected. With surface high
pressure moving over the area, winds will generally be light and
variable for much of the night before increasing a bit from the
southwest toward sunrise west of Highway 27 as the high continues
moving to the southeast. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower to middle 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...dry weather is forecast under northwest
flow aloft, in between a building upper ridge to our west and low
pressure across the Great Lakes. With very little moisture in
atmosphere, a sunny sky is expected during the day with a clear sky
overnight. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s with low temperatures in the lower 50s to around 60. West
to northwest winds gusting 20 to perhaps 30 mph are forecast during
the day with winds shifting to the northeast overnight as a cold
front moves in.

Thursday-Thursday night...the latest model guidance is similar to
the past few days, advertising dry weather during the day with a 20%
chance for showers and thunderstorms during the night as weather
systems move east off the Palmer Divide and east-northeast off the
Raton Ridge and into our area. GFS Precipitable water values
(PWAT) do increase from the southeast overnight with values up
to 1.20 inches. With 0-6km winds from the southwest in the
20-30kt range, threat for excessive rainfall appears low at this
time. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s with low
temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range.

Friday-Friday night... any morning shower/thunderstorm activity (20%
chance) should be east of Highway 27, exiting the area by around
noon CDT. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms (20%-30%)
arrives from the northwest in the afternoon with 40% chances through
midnight before moving slowly east after midnight. GFS PWAT values 1-
1.3 inches overnight with 0-6km winds of around 15kts from the
northwest. So, some may get some more beneficial rainfall. High
temperatures rise back into the upper 80s to lower 90s with low
temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Saturday...we remain under northwest flow aloft. Similar to Friday-
Friday night forecast, we`ll have any morning showers/thunderstorms
move out during the late morning with the next weather system moving
in from the northwest during the afternoon through midnight hours
where 20%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms continue before
decreasing a bit after midnight. GFS PWAT values increase during the
afternoon through midnight hours, peaking in the 1.1-1.6 inch range
with 0-6km winds from the west-northwest 15 to maybe 20kts. Will
need to monitor for excessive rainfall possibilities. High
temperatures cool a bit into the lower to middle 80s with low
temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range.

Sunday...latest forecast is calling for afternoon through overnight
chances (20%-40%) for showers and thunderstorms with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree
range.

Monday-Tuesday...the 500mb pattern is a bit more uncertain but
generally shows northwest flow aloft. We`ll need to continue
mentioning daily chances (20%-40%) of showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures both days a few degrees either side of 80 with low
temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR expected to prevail through tonight at both KGLD and KMCK.
There is a low probability of low ceilings and fog at KGLD
around sunrise Wednesday morning, both of which would lift by
mid morning. Afterwards, VFR expected to prevail at both
terminals through Wednesday night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024