868
FXUS63 KGLD 230950
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
350 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up
  to 105 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to
  air temperatures today and Tuesday. Monday will be higher
  prompting a Heat Advisory.

- Chances for storms each day.

- Elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the area
  today through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Across the region this morning, mostly clear to clear skies are
present with an area of high pressure moving through. Temperatures
as of 300 AM MDT are ranging in the mid 50s to the mid 60s, with
winds southerly over the western CWA, and light/variable east due to
the proximity of the ridge.

Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the hot
temperatures and resulting heat indices, chances for rw/trw today
and Monday, some which may be strong to severe. Also elevated fire
weather concerns for portions of the region.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is currently showing amplified
ridging into the Rockies, providing NW flow aloft over the Tri State
area. The latest runs of the GFS/NAM show this amplified ridge
broadening and shifting eastward into the Plains for Monday and
Tuesday.

At the surface, current area of high pressure that is providing a
decent overnight, will shift east during the day today as a broad
trough settles into the eastern Rockies. this will set up a
southerly flow area-wide.

On Monday, this trough remains through the day, but moves off the
Front Range late as a front, settling in the CWA and eventually
south of the area by the evening hours. This boundary clears the CWA
giving way to another broad low Tuesday, with high pressure north of
the area pushing south.

What this means for the area`s weather:

Sunday/Sunday night, the combination of the NW flow aloft and the
southerly surface winds, will continue hot(850 temps +28c to +33c)
and above normal conditions area-wide. There will be a weak
shortwave moving through the area later today that could trigger
convection(15-30%). Enough instability will be present to warrant a
Marginal Risk for severe from the SPC later today into the evening
hours. Main threat is wind should any storms occur as soundings do
show high DCape values around 00z Monday near 1600-1700j/kg.

Monday/Monday night, with the trough shifting east late in the day
as a front, and interacting with another weak shortwave, the area
will see chances(15-30%) for storms late. With some instability
present, a small Marginal Risk area is present in SW Nebraska. The
other issue through the day will be the continuance of the
oppressive heat. With the upper ridge extending into the Plains and
a persistent southerly surface flow, hot wx persists(850 temps +31c
to +36c). With somewhat more RH present in the east, have opted for
a Heat Advisory with readings 100-105 expected. This will be for
most areas along/east of Highway 25 in NW Kansas, and all of SW
Nebraska.

Tuesday/Tuesday night, mainly dry wx expected, but yet another hot
day on tap(850 temps +29c to +34c), as broad upper ridge remains
intact. Surface winds do shift northerly.

While Monday is the most prevalent day for high heat indices to
affect the public, areas along/east of Highway 83 today and
Tuesday will need to be monitored.

Also, with the hot and dry conditions expected, areas along and west
of Highway 27 could see elevated fire wx conditions. Please refer to
the Fire Wx section below.

For temps, hot above normal highs will persist during the short term
period. Highs today will range from the upper 90s west into the low
100s east. Going into Monday, even hotter with low to mid 100s
expected. Slightly cooler Tuesday with a return to a range from the
upper 90s to low 100s. Please refer to the Climate section below for
record high information.

With the expected hot temperatures, heat indices during the
afternoon hours will also make an impact area-wide. Sunday`s and
Tuesday`s numbers will stay fairly close to forecasted highs, but it
will be Monday`s readings that will be most impactful. Readings of
100-105 expected have allowed for the issuance of a Heat Advisory
for a good portion of the region. Highest reading today and Tuesday
will be focused on locales east of Highway 25, especially around the
Highway 83 region.

Overnight lows tonight and Monday night will range from the mid 60s
west into the lower 70s east. By Tuesday night, a range in the 60s
is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Overview: An upper level ridge.. extending northward from the
Desert Southwest to the 4-Corners and central Rockies (Wed-
Thu).. will flatten and regress southward to the Desert
Southwest/Southern Plains (Thu-Fri), as an upper level low
moving ashore the Pacific NW progresses eastward to the Dakotas
and an associated trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ progresses
eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies. In the wake
of the progressive upper wave.. long range guidance indicates
that a west-east elongated ridge will amplify over the southern
CONUS (Sat-Sun). Above average temperatures are likely to
persist throughout the extended forecast period.

Wed: Precipitation chances /convective development/ will highly
depend upon the evolution of the ridge. 00Z 06/23 operational
ECMWF guidance continues to indicate that the magnitude,
position and orientation of the ridge will be such that (1)
synoptic subsidence may largely suppress diurnal convective
development along the Colorado Front Range/Palmer Divide and (2)
that low-level forcing/moisture may be insufficient for in-sits
convective development on adjacent portions of the High Plains
(i.e. northwest KS). 00Z 06/23 operational GFS guidance, on the
other hand, continues to indicate a less pronounced, ridge..
with the mid-latitude westerlies (northwesterlies, in this case)
in closer proximity to the Tri-State area.. a somewhat more
favorable pattern for convective development.

Thu-Fri: While 00Z ECMWF/GFS operational guidance indicate that
synoptic forcing assoc/w the progressive upper wave will
largely be focused over the Northern Plains (Dakotas-Nebraska),
the presence of cyclonic flow aloft, in of itself, suggests an
above average potential for convection.

Sat-Sun: With an amplifying, west-east elongated ridge over the
southern CONUS.. above average temperatures and below average
precipitation chances are presently expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals through
the 06Z TAF period. Light southerly winds increase in magnitude
towards sunrise to around 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to
around 20 knots. Storms may develop tomorrow afternoon-evening,
with general timing between 21-03Z. Low confidence in coverage
and placement of any storms, and therefore, whether or not the
terminals would be impacted; as such, have omitted from this TAF
issuance but will reassess as needed. Storms tomorrow do carry
the potential to become severe, with primary hazard of damaging
wind gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Elevated fire wx conditions will be present and increase from
today on into Tuesday. The area(s) of focus will be locales
along/west of Highway 27. Humidity this afternoon will drop into
the upper teens and lower 20s. For Monday upper teens to lower
20s, but the coverage of RH in the teens has increased. By
Tuesday, mid teens to around 20 percent. Winds will stay below
criteria with Sun-Mon having southerly flow w/ gusts up to 15-20
mph possible. On Tuesday, northerly flow ensues, with gusts
around 20 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area today and especially
into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide, there could be
some locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the
daily record(s). The records for Sunday, June 23rd and Monday,
June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected
forecast each day. Despite the region seeing triple digit heat,
most locales are still below records.

                      Sunday, 6/23           Monday, 6/24

Goodland KS           106F in 2012+          109F in 2012
Burlington CO         106F in 1954           107F in 1954
Hill City KS          111F in 2012           114F in 2012
McCook NE             106F in 2012+          107F in 1943
Colby KS              105F in 1943           107F in 2012
Tribune KS            105F in 1954           109F in 2012
Yuma CO               107F in 1954           103F in 2002

A (+) denotes a multiple year record

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ002>004-
     014>016-029.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BV
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...JN
CLIMATE...JN