Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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877 FXUS63 KGLD 162023 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 223 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees are expected across the majority of the Tri-State area today and tomorrow. Heat indices approaching 105 degrees are possible along and east of Highway 283 today. - There is a marginal/slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Confidence is low in whether or not storms will develop, however if they do large hail and damaging winds will be possible. There is also a risk for a tornado or two if storms develop along a cold front from northern Yuma County eastward along the Kansas and Nebraska border area, including southwest Nebraska. - Similar to today, there is a marginal/slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence remains low on whether or not they will develop. However, conditions remain favorable for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two should storms form. - Monday will be windy to very windy during the afternoon and evening hours. South winds gusting 40 to 50 mph will be possible. Areas of blowing dust may develop due to the strong winds. - Tuesday there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Confidence is higher that storms will develop. In addition to the severe risk, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will become a concern Tuesday night with repeated rounds of thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny, expect for mostly sunny skies across central portions of the CWA. This is where a meandering frontal boundary resides, with cumulus starting to pop up along it. Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s/90s north of boundary into Nebraska. south of the boundary, 90s. For winds, south of the boundary, S/SE flow persists with gusts into the 20-25 mph range at times. Along the boundary, variable winds at times and to the north, E/NE flow persists. Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the potential for strong to severe storms over portions of the area during the afternoon/evening hours today through Tuesday. Some blowing dust is possible Monday afternoon. Increased chances for rw/trw Tuesday/Tuesday evening could bring about heavy rainfall/flooding concerns in addition to the threats from severe storms(wind, hail, etc). For the remainder of the afternoon hrs into this evening, the wx threat will focus on where the aforementioned boundary resides. SPC has increased the Marginal risk in areas along/north of Highway 36 in NE/KS due to increased instability/moisture with a more easterly fetch. Between the HRRR, RAP and NamNest, the NamNest is the most aggressive with storm potential starting along and north of the front/boundary around 00z Monday, lifting north and east through 06z. HRRR/RAP only shows a few isolated cells that amount to very little. There is decent shear along/ahead of the front thanks to the easterly flow. Soundings from the HRRR around 21z-22z do show inverted-v profile and DCape around 1700-1800 j/kg, and SBCape around 1100-1200j/kg. So if a storm could initiate, it could grow fairly quickly with potentially all threat mode on the table, especially damaging winds. With the uncertainty of formation/coverage, plan on keeping close to previous forecast (20- 30% pops) for now. The later evening hours do show the potential for isolated rw/trw potential, so will trend a 20 pop through the CWA into Monday morning. Going into Monday, a similar situation to today. Front will remain the focus for any strong to severe storms. Surface low on the western side of the front in Colorado will focus increased southerly flow to areas across NE/KS. Models are hinting at 40-50 mph gust potential, especially in KS. Numbers stay low enough not to warrant a high wind watch, but need to be monitored for next forecast issuance. Also, western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties into Yuma county in Colorado will be on the low end for RH during the afternoon hrs. Areal coverage combined with winds meeting criteria warrants a fire wx watch(17z Mon-02z Tue) at this time. Local guidance is close to having patchy blowing dust in the southwest, so have kept a mention in but decreased coverage from previous forecast. The rest of the weather concerns will be on the threat for storms. CAMs are showing best chance from 00z Tuesday onward with the front lifting into northern tier CWA zones. This will bring another round of hot conditions, drying lower levels out. Model soundings show increased DCape values around 2000-2200j/kg in the 00z Tuesday timeframe, with SBCape values around 1200j/kg. Again like today, the best CAM showing this activity potential, the NamNest, keeps best chances along/north of the front, Highway 36 and north. Activity clears quicker than tonight, allowing for coverage to end by 06z Tuesday. Both today and Monday will also have high PW values of an inch plus, mainly in KS/NE, allowing for chances for heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. On Tuesday, the low associated with the front is pushed south due to a nosing ridge from the northern Rockies. This is going to push the front back south and east as well with it becoming nearly stationary through the evening hours. This boundary will interact with a passing 500mb shortwave creating rw/trw chances. With a persistent feed of moisture into the front area, pops have increased into the 60-80% range for the evening and overnight hours. Highest chances east near the front. Excessive rain along with another chance for strong to severe storms occurs. This will be focused in the east where the front will reside. Wind, hail threats will be on tap, along with chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns. As with the past couple days, precip chances do not let up going into the midweek timeframe. For temps, another hot day expected on Monday as highs will range in the upper 90s to low 100s. Going into Tuesday, with a front over the area, a wider range for highs is expected with lower 80s in the northwest into the mid 90s in the east-southeast. Overnight lows tonight will range from the 60s west of Highway 25, through the lower to mid 70s along and east of Highway 25. For Monday night, similar to tonight`s numbers, but some upper 50s may be seen in portions of northeast Colorado. Going into Tuesday night, cooler with mainly 50s expected. Some locales east of Highway 25/south of Highway 24 will range into lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Generally west-southwesterly flow is anticipated through the long term period as high pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast, slowing eastward progression of upper troughing over the western CONUS. In this setup, weak shortwaves will keep daily chances for showers/storms over the area, generally in the afternoon- evening hours. Wednesday is the exception, with better chances (to around 60-70%) and more of a time window for occurrence as chances continue throughout the day. It`s during the latter part of the work week and into the weekend that the upper trough starts eastward, eventually shifting flow west-northwesterly with ridging building in upstream. Regarding temperatures, Wednesday continues to trend down with highs topping out in the middle 60s to middle 70s under cloudy skies and with chances for showers/storms through the day. Partly cloudy skies, continuing afternoon-evening shower/storm chances, and a general warming trend to close out the work week into the weekend, with highs in the 80s Thursday, mid-upper 80s to low-mid 90s thereafter. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 959 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions for both terminals during the forecast period at this time. Chance for VCTS for both sites from approx 22z-02z(KGLD) and 01z-05z(KMCK). Low confidence at this time they will affect either terminal but will monitor for later updates. Winds for KGLD, south 10-20kts through 22z then becoming southeast 15-30kts. From 05z Monday onward, southerly again around 25-35kts. LLWS 02z-05z Monday 160@45kts and again from 05z onward 180@55kts. Winds for KMCK, east around 10kts through 20z, then southeast around 15-25kts. Around 05z Monday, southerly 15-25kts through 15z, with a turn towards southwest around 20-30kts. LLWS 05z-15z Monday 180@50kts and again from 15z onward 190@45kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 955 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Near-record to record high temperatures are expected across portions of the area on Sunday June 16. High temperature records for the date (June 16) are listed below. Location Record (F) Goodland KS 101 in 2021+ McCook NE 107 in 1946 Hill City KS 112 in 1946 Burlington CO 103 in 1952 Colby KS 107 in 1946 Tribune KS 103 in 1946 Yuma CO 98 in 1995 A (+) denotes a record set on multiple years. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ252>254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...JN CLIMATE...JN