916
FXUS63 KGLD 172030
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible this evening.

- Cooler then much cooler/colder (compared to the past few days)
  Tuesday through Thursday.

- Better chances for rainfall (40%-80%) Tuesday night through
  Wednesday night. Locally excessive rainfall possible.

- Highs return back into the 90s Friday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight...an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible through about
02z before moisture from the surface through 500mb quickly
dissipates. A rather strong low level jet develops with surface
winds from the south, gusting up to 50 mph or so through about
midnight before decreasing as a cold front moves into the northwest
1/2 of the area toward sunrise Tuesday morning. There is a narrow
corridor along the CO/KS state line to Highway 25 where DESI is
showing 40%-70% probabilities of wind gusts to 55 mph, decreasing to
around 10% for gusts greater than 60 mph. Will go ahead with a High
Wind Warning for locations along and north of I-70 and along
Highways 27 and 25. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the
middle 50s to lower 60s in far eastern Colorado to the lower to
middle 70s from Trenton to Oakley east.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...the forecast area is under southwest flow
aloft, in between a trough to our west and ridge to our east. A
blend of GFS/NAM/SREF PWAT values range from 0.80 inches across far
eastern Colorado to 1.50 inches in Norton/Graham counties with 0-6km
winds in the 20-25kt range.

The morning should see quite a bit of clouds per model 850-700mb
relative humidity across the northeast to southwest portions of the
area. Various model qpf forecasts support 20%-30% chances for
showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in this area. During the
afternoon, a weather system is forecast to move into the area from
the southwest, supporting 20%-60% chances for thunderstorms, mainly
east of the CO/KS border. This area is outlooked with Marginal and
Slight Risks for severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging
winds the primary hazards. Overnight, thunderstorm chances increase
into the 40%-80% range with the threats becoming heavy rainfall
and potential flooding as storms potentially move over the same
areas given the flow aloft and under favorable 250mb jet
divergence.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 70s to upper 80s
with low temperatures in the lower to upper 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...extensive low cloudiness is forecast to
reside over the area during the day, dissipating some overnight. A
mid level dry slot is forecast to develop during the afternoon,
continuing through the overnight hours. 30%-70% chances for showers
and thunderstorms during the day are currently forecast to increase
into the 60%-80% range during the night. I dont have a good feeling
about pops being this high although the placement of the higher pops
across the northern and western parts of the area looks good per
GFS/NAM 850-500mb relative humidity being the highest and qpf being
higher compared to areas further south/southeast.

High temperatures will be cooler/colder, especially compared to the
past few days but just how much is the question. Presently, a blend
of the better performing temperature guidance yields highs in the
lower 60s to around 70. MET guidance has highs in the 50s and 60s
which is reasonable given the extensive cloud cover. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s lower 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...we remain under southwest flow aloft with
less moisture in the 850-500mb layer available compared to
Wednesday. As result, pops are lowered into the 20%-30% range during
the day with similar values across the northwest 1/2 of the area
during the night. Breezy to perhaps windy conditions during the day
and night mainly west of Highway 25 with southerly winds gusting 25
to 35 mph. High temperatures warm back up into the middle 80s with
low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

West-southwesterly flow aloft continues on Friday before a shortwave
trough moves through during the evening-overnight hours, so we`ll
continue to carry around 30-40% PoPs in this timeframe as a sfc-850
mb low slides through the area. With eastward progression of the
upper trough, flow will veer to become west-northwesterly for the
weekend as a ridge builds over the western CONUS with high pressure
centered in vicinity of the Four Corners region. Daily weak
shortwaves moving through the flow will keep at least slight chance
to chance PoPs in the forecast, generally in the afternoon-evening
hours. Will need to continue to monitor the severe weather potential
as we near the weekend into the start of the work week as decent
shear and instability look to be available based on current model
guidance and moisture looks to be there with PWAT values
generally to around 1-1.5 inches through much of the period,
highest at the close of the work week-start of the weekend.
Another potential impact to monitor would be another bout of
breezy to windy conditions at the close of the work week as
south-southwesterly winds increase ahead of the approaching
system.

For temperatures, expecting highs in the middle 80s to low-mid 90s
over the weekend, warming further into the 90s to start the work
week. Low temperatures are forecast to be generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
Southerly winds gusting 30 to 45kts are expected from taf
issuance through much of tonight with the stronger gusts after
dark. Winds shift to the northwest around 12z, gusting up to
25kts. Winds then veer to the north, gusting up to 30kts.
Presently, no precipitation is forecast. Its possible that the
terminal could be impacted by thunderstorms in the 23z-02z
timeframe but confidence and areal coverage are too low to
presently include in the forecast. There could be sub VFR cigs
for a few hours either side of 12z Tuesday.

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
Southerly winds gusting 25 to 40kts are expected from taf
issuance through much of tonight with the stronger gusts after
sunset. Winds veer to the west-southwest, gusting up to 25kts
around 12z, shifting to the northwest by 15z with gusts up to
30kts. Presently, no precipitation is forecast. Its possible
that the terminal could be impacted by thunderstorms in the
01z-04z timeframe but confidence and areal coverage are too low
to presently include in the forecast. Sub VFR cigs are possible
for a few hours either side of 12z Tuesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 3
     AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013-014.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.
NE...High Wind Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 3
     AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99