548
FXUS63 KGLD 232017
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers tonight into
  Tuesday morning.

- Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Through the day today, a 500mb ridge from the southwest will be
keeping the sky clear today as temperatures warm into the mid to
upper 70s. Winds will be light and southerly for most of the day,
until the afternoon when a very weak surface low will cause winds in
the eastern CWA to become northerly. By 0Z, the low will have
dissipated and southerly winds will be returning.

Around 3Z Tuesday a trough, with an associated surface cold front,
starts moving into the northern parts of the area that could bring
in some sprinkles or light showers. This trough is extending from a
low pressure system moving southeast across the Northern Plains into
Missouri. The additional cloud cover will keep overnight
temperatures near 50. The sprinkles are most likely to occur near a
line from Hill City, KS to Trenton, NE between 6Z and 18Z. These
sprinkles are not expected to amount to measurable precipitation.

By Wednesday 0Z, we will be seeing northerly flow throughout the
column with the low to our east and a developing high to the west.
This pattern will continue through Wednesday and Wednesday night.
This will clear out the sky again, allowing temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday night to cool into the lower to mid 40s. Day time heating
will capitalize on the clear skies, with Tuesday warming into the
mid to upper 70s with Wednesday warming to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show much of the extended period
having amplified upper level ridging over the central Plains. This
is going to provide dry conditions to the area with near/above
normal temperatures. Guidance does bring a meandering, retrograding
upper low from the lower Mississippi Valley towards eastern KS
before lifting east. At most some increased clouds expected in the
eastern zones early Saturday morning, otherwise sunny skies will
prevail. For the late in the weekend period into next Monday, a
closed upper low works across the north central Plains w/ a trailing
cold front through the CWA in the Mon-Mon night timeframe. The
passage will bring some decent CAAa into the area for round of below
normal temps. 850mb temps for this time range +4c to +8c. The two
models do differ on the surge of a strong surface ridge into the
area behind the front, which could delay/increase the CAA into the
area by Monday night. Some gusts ahead of the ridge initially could
approach the 30-35 mph range.

For temps, looking for highs on Friday through the upcoming weekend
to range in the upper 70s into the lower 80s. Warmest areas each day
will be mainly west of Highway 25. Going into next Monday, 70s
return area-wide. Lows Thursday night will range in the 40s. For Fri-
Sun nights, 40s west into the lower 50s east, followed by slightly
colder air Monday night with a range from the upper 30s to lower 40s
in Colorado to the lower and mid 40s east of there.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1019 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Both terminals expected to see VFR conditions through the
forecast period. Winds for KGLD, southwest around 10kts through
09z Tuesday. There could be a period of light/variable from 22z
Mon-03z Tue. From 09z onward, north-northwest around 10kts.
Winds for KMCK, south 5-10kts through 00z Tuesday, then
light/variable. By 12z, becoming northwest around 10kts. There
is a low(15%) chances for showers/sprinkles to fall over the
terminals, especially KMCK. Do not expect impacts from these at
this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN