Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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136 FXUS63 KGLD 180801 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 201 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There will be an elevated fire weather risk in parts of northeast Colorado Friday afternoon. - Precipitation chances return for Friday and through the weekend. Best chances will be Saturday and into early Sunday with the main upper low moving across the area. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding may be a concern during that time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A line of thunderstorms will gradually exit our area after midnight towards the early morning hours. Westerly wind gusts upwards of 50 mph will be possible behind the line along with additional threats of blowing dust and reduced visibilities followed by heavy downpours. Clearing conditions behind the line of storms will allow for temperatures to drop into the lower 60s east to the upper 40s west into eastern CO as winds diminish returning southerly. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper low in the Great Basin will lift northeast into Wyoming tonight, with a negatively tilted trough axis moving through the local area. A fairly solid line of thunderstorms has been consistently forecast by the models the last few runs, developing along the southern Colorado Front Range and quickly moving northeast with the upper dynamics, reaching the Colorado-Kansas border area by around 01z, Highway 83 by around 03z, and continuing east but weakening afterwards. Main hazards with this line of storms will be wind gusts potentially between 60-80 mph and blowing dust, especially along the Kansas and Colorado border area. The line of storms may tend to weaken some as it moves east, but there will still be some potential for wind gusts of up to 60 mph. There is a low end risk for hail with the initial storms, perhaps a few instances up to quarter sized, but wind will be the main risk. Mean precipitation amounts are around a half inch in the Colorado/Kansas border area, and generally between a quarter and a half inch elsewhere, so flooding is not expected to be a concern as the line will be moving at a good clip. Precipitation should exit the area to the east by 06-07z with diminishing winds. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s. The next system will dig along the Pacific west coast Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest flow ahead of it will result in warm and dry conditions both days. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A weak front will move through late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, shifting winds around to the northwest. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler on Thursday behind the front with highs in the low to mid 80s. Afternoon humidity does fall below 20 percent both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but winds will be light and not expecting fire weather concerns at this time. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 201 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The long-term looks to start off active and become more docile through early next week. Saturday morning, a well organized low pressure system will be near the Four Corners Region and rapidly moving northeast into the High Plains. Throughout Friday night, a moderately strong 850 mb LLJ will set up and move additional moisture into the region. The additional moisture will keep temperatures from cooling off too much Saturday morning, but will limit day time heating. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region, but if the clouds break, expect warmer temperatures. The combination of warm, moist air with the low pressure system (and associated fronts) will fire off storms, likely in the afternoon and evening hours. Models are fairly consistent will widespread precipitation being expected. Deep layer shear during this event looks to increase the potential for severe weather (~5-10%), but instability is marginal. There is also a small (<10%) chance winds ahead of the storms could gust around 30-35 kts in eastern Colorado producing blowing dust. If there is a clearing of the clouds and the winds are able to pick up, localized blowing dust could occur, otherwise blowing dust is not expected to be a major hazard. As the low moves farther into the CWA, winds will become northwesterly and start cooling off the area. High temperatures on Sunday look to remain largely in the upper 60s, and potentially cooler depending on the efficiency of the CAA. The low pressure system will take until Sunday night to move out of the area, giving the area increased PoPs through Sunday evening. Once the low moves out, northwesterly flow is expected to dominate the High Plains through the remainder of the period. This will keep high temperatures in the mid 70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s for the rest of the period. As is typical in northwesterly flow on the High Plains, shortwaves are bound to occur and could bring isolated to scattered showers and storms into the area. Monday through Wednesday, no organized systems seem likely, just the potential shortwave showers. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds gusting up to 40-45kts are forecast through ~09Z. After 09Z, south to southwest winds up to 15kts are forecast through 15Z, decreasing to around 10kts with some gusts afterwards. LLWS up to 50kts are expected through ~10Z this morning. KMCK...VFR conditions are forecast through the period. A line of thunderstorms is exiting Red Willow County with wind gusts up to 30kts. LLWS up to 40kts is expected to impact the terminal through ~15Z. After 16z, south to southeast winds up to 10kts are forecast. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sipprell SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...KMK