678
FXUS63 KGLD 232329
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
529 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up
  to 105 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to
  air temperatures today and Tuesday. Monday will be higher
  prompting a Heat Advisory.

- Chances for storms each day.

- Near Critical fire weather conditions possible in Eastern
  Colorado on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

We currently have a 250mb high pressure system over Texas and a low
pressure system in central Canada. These two features have created
generally zonal flow through the Great Plains, which looks to remain
over the next few days. There is a CU field forming over
southeastern Colorado and is expected to build into our area over
the next few hours. By around 22Z, if no showers or storms have
formed, the chance of precipitation for today will drop quickly.
However, if convection does occur, short-lived pop-up showers and
storms would be expected. No severe weather is expected this
evening, mainly due to a general lack of forcing, but wind gusts
could get up to around 50 MPH. Convection, if it occurs, will
generally fire near the KS/CO border and move east-northeast. By 3Z,
the precipitation is forecast to have completely ended.

Overnight tonight, once the precipitation ceases, we will be mostly
clear and winds will be around 10-15 kts from the south-southwest.
Low temperatures look to cool into the mid 60s to lower 70s tonight,
with the warmest temperatures near Hill City.

Tomorrow, we will be very similar to today, but even warmer. The
southerly winds pick up to around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts from
the SSW. This will help a dryline form fairly early in the day.
Also, at 500mb, a weak shortwave looks to start impacting the CWA
around 18-21Z. These two features may set off some scattered storms
in the early afternoon. Best time for convection will be between 20-
01Z. The 500mb shortwave looks stronger tomorrow than today, but
confidence in storms is not very high, only about 15%.

Temperatures tomorrow are concerning and a Heat Advisory has been
issued for locations along and east of a line from Logan county to
Dundy county. Temperatures will warm to 100-105 for nearly all of
the CWA. Heat indices in the advised area are forecast to be near
105F. Be prepared for very hot weather! Overnight temperatures will
drop into the mid 60s to low 70s Monday night.

There are some elevated fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon
in the western CWA. Minimum RH values are forecast to be in the mid
teens, but winds only gust up to around 10-15 kts in the western
portions of the CWA. No where near critical fire weather conditions,
but it is worth keeping an eye on any fires

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For the long term period, generally above average temperatures and
chances for precipitation remain forecast for the period.

Tuesday and Wednesday continue to be forecast to see temperatures in
the mid 90`s and 100`s with an upper ridge axis shifting through the
area. The main thing that could affect this is that ensembles
continue to suggest that a shortwave that is a part of the larger
upper low may amplify a bit over the Northern Plains and help bring
some cooler air/cloud cover in to the area. If this happens,
Wednesday may be cooler in the low to mid 90`s. As for storms,
Tuesday has a lower chance that depends on if a surface low system
remains near the area or shifts too far south. Wednesday, chances
are a bit higher as guidance suggests more mid-level moisture could
advect into the area. In regards to fire weather conditions,
Tuesday may see near critical fire conditions in Eastern
Colorado. the main inhibitor from critical conditions is the
winds with the forecast wind gusts generally below 25 mph.

Thursday through Sunday continues to have a system forecast to move
through the area. An upper trough is forecast to move from the
Northwest CONUS through the Northern Rockies. Timing for when this
occurs continues to vary, especially in ensemble spreads. The
current likely scenario is fore temperatures in the 90`s to persist
through much of the days short of whichever day (likely Saturday) is
after the passage of the trough with temperatures potentially in the
80`s. The forecast has daily chances for storms, favoring Eastern
Colorado and adjacent area. Whenever the upper trough and surface
low system pass through the area, the entire area would have a
better chance for storms. Severe storms would be possible, but the
current forecast looks to favor more isolated/scattered severe
chances with marginal instability and effective shear.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals through
the 00Z TAF period. South-southwesterly winds at around 10-15 knots
sustained with occasional gusts to around 20-25 knots will gradually
decrease overnight, eventually backing to become more southerly.
Have included a period of LLWS for MCK between 05-12Z. Again
looking at low confidence in development of storms during the
afternoon tomorrow; have excluded from this TAF issuance but
will monitor for potential addition in later issuances.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area today and especially
into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide, there could be
some locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the
daily record(s). The records for Sunday, June 23rd and Monday,
June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected
forecast each day. Despite the region seeing triple digit heat,
most locales are still below records.

                      Sunday, 6/23           Monday, 6/24

Goodland KS           106F in 2012+          109F in 2012
Burlington CO         106F in 1954           107F in 1954
Hill City KS          111F in 2012           114F in 2012
McCook NE             106F in 2012+          107F in 1943
Colby KS              105F in 1943           107F in 2012
Tribune KS            105F in 1954           109F in 2012
Yuma CO               107F in 1954           103F in 2002

A (+) denotes a multiple year record

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ002>004-
     014>016-028-029.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CC
CLIMATE...JN