Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
422 FXUS63 KGLD 240426 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1026 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up to 105 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to air temperatures today and Tuesday. Monday will be higher prompting a Heat Advisory. - Chances for storms each day. - Near Critical fire weather conditions possible in Eastern Colorado on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 We currently have a 250mb high pressure system over Texas and a low pressure system in central Canada. These two features have created generally zonal flow through the Great Plains, which looks to remain over the next few days. There is a CU field forming over southeastern Colorado and is expected to build into our area over the next few hours. By around 22Z, if no showers or storms have formed, the chance of precipitation for today will drop quickly. However, if convection does occur, short-lived pop-up showers and storms would be expected. No severe weather is expected this evening, mainly due to a general lack of forcing, but wind gusts could get up to around 50 MPH. Convection, if it occurs, will generally fire near the KS/CO border and move east-northeast. By 3Z, the precipitation is forecast to have completely ended. Overnight tonight, once the precipitation ceases, we will be mostly clear and winds will be around 10-15 kts from the south-southwest. Low temperatures look to cool into the mid 60s to lower 70s tonight, with the warmest temperatures near Hill City. Tomorrow, we will be very similar to today, but even warmer. The southerly winds pick up to around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts from the SSW. This will help a dryline form fairly early in the day. Also, at 500mb, a weak shortwave looks to start impacting the CWA around 18-21Z. These two features may set off some scattered storms in the early afternoon. Best time for convection will be between 20- 01Z. The 500mb shortwave looks stronger tomorrow than today, but confidence in storms is not very high, only about 15%. Temperatures tomorrow are concerning and a Heat Advisory has been issued for locations along and east of a line from Logan county to Dundy county. Temperatures will warm to 100-105 for nearly all of the CWA. Heat indices in the advised area are forecast to be near 105F. Be prepared for very hot weather! Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid 60s to low 70s Monday night. There are some elevated fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon in the western CWA. Minimum RH values are forecast to be in the mid teens, but winds only gust up to around 10-15 kts in the western portions of the CWA. No where near critical fire weather conditions, but it is worth keeping an eye on any fires && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For the long term period, generally above average temperatures and chances for precipitation remain forecast for the period. Tuesday and Wednesday continue to be forecast to see temperatures in the mid 90`s and 100`s with an upper ridge axis shifting through the area. The main thing that could affect this is that ensembles continue to suggest that a shortwave that is a part of the larger upper low may amplify a bit over the Northern Plains and help bring some cooler air/cloud cover in to the area. If this happens, Wednesday may be cooler in the low to mid 90`s. As for storms, Tuesday has a lower chance that depends on if a surface low system remains near the area or shifts too far south. Wednesday, chances are a bit higher as guidance suggests more mid-level moisture could advect into the area. In regards to fire weather conditions, Tuesday may see near critical fire conditions in Eastern Colorado. the main inhibitor from critical conditions is the winds with the forecast wind gusts generally below 25 mph. Thursday through Sunday continues to have a system forecast to move through the area. An upper trough is forecast to move from the Northwest CONUS through the Northern Rockies. Timing for when this occurs continues to vary, especially in ensemble spreads. The current likely scenario is fore temperatures in the 90`s to persist through much of the days short of whichever day (likely Saturday) is after the passage of the trough with temperatures potentially in the 80`s. The forecast has daily chances for storms, favoring Eastern Colorado and adjacent area. Whenever the upper trough and surface low system pass through the area, the entire area would have a better chance for storms. Severe storms would be possible, but the current forecast looks to favor more isolated/scattered severe chances with marginal instability and effective shear. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals through the 06Z TAF period. South-southwesterly winds at around 6-12 knots sustained with occasional gusts at GLD to around 20 knots will gradually decrease overnight, then becoming south-southeasterly in the afternoon. Have included a period of LLWS for MCK until 12Z. Continuing to monitor potential for development of storms during the afternoon-evening. Storms may produce gusty, erratic outflow winds; have omitted from this TAF issuance but will assess for potential addition in later issuances. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 With hot conditions expected over the area today and especially into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide, there could be some locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for Sunday, June 23rd and Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected forecast each day. Despite the region seeing triple digit heat, most locales are still below records. Sunday, 6/23 Monday, 6/24 Goodland KS 106F in 2012+ 109F in 2012 Burlington CO 106F in 1954 107F in 1954 Hill City KS 111F in 2012 114F in 2012 McCook NE 106F in 2012+ 107F in 1943 Colby KS 105F in 1943 107F in 2012 Tribune KS 105F in 1954 109F in 2012 Yuma CO 107F in 1954 103F in 2002 A (+) denotes a multiple year record && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ002>004- 014>016-028-029. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...CC CLIMATE...JN