102
FXUS63 KGLD 240842
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers this morning.

- Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Around 12Z today, the low pressure system bringing some sprinkles to
the eastern CWA will be exiting the region, by 15Z, any lingering
sprinkles will have ceased. Then, a high pressure system will be
moving into the region, clearing out the skies and giving us
northerly flow through most of the column. Winds from the north will
gust to around 20 kts today until around sunset. Then winds will
calm and remain fairly calm until Thursday afternoon, when winds
around 15 kts will return.

This high pressure system will setup over the southwestern CONUS and
block the High Plains from any troughs. Clear, dry, and warmer than
normal conditions will prevail for majority of the period. Highs
will follow a warming trend; today will warm into the mid to upper
70s, but low to mid 80s are forecast by Thursday. Overnight lows
will also see a slight warming trend; lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 40s, but Thursday night will cool to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

As we move into the weekend, a broad ridge will extend across
the Central to SW portions of North America in a semi-omega
pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF favor cut-off or closed lows
developing on the southern ends of upper troughs that will pinch
the side of the ridge closer over the Rockies and Great Plains.
This pattern will unfortunately lead to dry conditions most
likely through early next week. There is a cutoff system that
sets up over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This system
does meander and retrograde some late in the week. The ECMWF
shows the best potential for some increased moisture to work
towards the eastern CWA, but the overall trend keeps this east
of the area. Late Monday into Tuesday morning, a cold front is
expected to move south across the Central Plains. Precipitation
is not expected with this front, but cooler temperatures are
possible given the cold air advection moving in behind it.

Temperatures through Monday are expected to be slightly above
average for the highs and lows. High temperatures have been
fluctuating between the mid 70s to lower 80s each day. Overnight
lows could be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Near normal temperatures
are possible on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
southwest wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the
northwest through sunrise at speeds up to 10kts. Winds will be
northerly with gusts to around 20kts from 16z-22z, falling below
12kts by 23z then light and variable after 02z.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will become northwesterly at
speeds up to 10kts around 14z. Northerly winds gusting up to
20kts or so are anticipated from around 18z-21z. After 02z,
winds become light and variable. Sprinkles or light rain
showers are possible over the terminal from around 07z-11z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...99