Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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637 FXUS63 KGLD 131118 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 518 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures persist across the area today, mainly south of I-70 where highs will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Scattered storms will develop in northeast Colorado and south of Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas this afternoon. A few storms will be capable of producing hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts through the evening. - More widespread severe weather is anticipated Friday afternoon and evening. Storms will develop in Colorado during the afternoon and move through the remainder of the area Friday night. Some of these storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be possible. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Shallow cold front moves through the area this morning then stalls in Colorado and along/just south of Highway 96 in Kansas. Shortwave trough will come over the ridge axis with convective initiation occurring in the 20-22z time frame along the front. The environment will be weakly unstable with around 30 kts of deep layer shear. Moisture will be somewhat limited and storms high based, posing primarily a risk for severe wind gusts as they drift eastward this evening. Other storms may develop in the post frontal upslope regime as far west as the the Front Range. These storms will be in a highly sheared environment and a supercell or two is possible, potentially impacting Colorado counties in the evening with a large hail/high wind/brief tornado risk. Showers and thunderstorms wind down by 06z. High temperatures today will barely be impacted by the so-called cold front, ranging from the lower 90s in southwest Nebraska to the lower 100s south of Interstate 70. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. For Friday, a few morning showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible, but better chances will hold off until Friday afternoon. The ridge axis will move east with a fairly strong shortwave trough coming out of Colorado behind it. Expect to see a rapid increase in coverage in Colorado by late afternoon and overspreading the remainder of the area Friday evening. Models forecast moderate to strong instability to develop, 25000-3500 j/kg, and deep layer shear of 30-40 kts. Given the strong lift from the shortwave and these environmental parameters, severe thunderstorms seem likely, with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. CAMs show a couple of clusters developing Friday evening, one lifting northeast into Nebraska and another moving east across northwest Kansas. Heavy rainfall will also be possible, with mean precipitation amounts for the event ranging from around a half in Colorado to around 1 inch in southwest Nebraska. 90th percentile QPF is between 2 and 3 inches in southwest Nebraska and along the Kansas and Nebraska border area with the northern cluster of storms, as well as generally south of Highway 40 in northwest Kansas with the second cluster. Severe and flooding threats should end by around 06z with just lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows Friday night ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s. The shortwave trough axis will be slowly moving across the area Saturday morning and be located in eastern forecast area by the afternoon and time of peak heating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in weak instability and weak shear during the afternoon, with best chances in the east where there will also be some surface convergence near a trough/diffuse dry line. Cannot completely discount a marginal risk for a severe storm or two in those eastern areas during the afternoon, but overall risk seems fairly low for severe storms. Additional rainfall amounts on Saturday are up to a quarter of an inch in eastern areas (Norton to Leoti) and up to a tenth of an inch in western areas. Precipitation winds down and moves east fairly early Saturday evening. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s and lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 101 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 At the start of the long term period, flow aloft backs from west- northwesterly to become west-southwesterly as an upper low centered over Saskatchewan progresses eastward. Mostly sunny skies and near- triple digit heat on Sunday will give way to a few chances for showers/storms Sunday evening as a shortwave moves through the area. We`ll then be looking at another low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest at the start of the new work week, and out ahead of it, increasing southerly to southwesterly flow into the area, giving us breezy to windy conditions. Chances for showers/storms continue Monday evening followed by additional chances arriving with the mid-week system as a front moves in. Some slight relief from the heat will also be provided mid-week, albeit still above normal for this time of year, with high temperatures forecast to top out in the 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows start out generally in the 60s to low 70s, falling into the mid-upper 50s and 60s mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 515 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will develop after 21z this afternoon in the Colorado and Kansas border area with a low probability of directly impacting KGLD through this evening. Storms are not expected in the KMCK area. So, VFR likely to prevail through most of the TAF period today. Overnight, low ceilings may develop at KGLD towards sunrise with a persistent low level easterly flow and moisture return. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...024