Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
096 FXUS63 KGRB 152333 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and summer-like temperatures are expected this week. Highs will range from the upper 70s to middle 80s. - The next chance of rain will not arrive until late this week or next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Monday Daytime heating led to the development of fair weather cu across much of the forecast area away from Lake Michigan. A small thunderstorm popped up in northern WI early this afternoon, and then tracked northeast into the U.P. of Michigan. Rain-free conditions have otherwise prevailed. There remains a very small chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in northern WI through early evening. Large-scale forcing and moisture are limited, but there is some instability that will last through sunset, so maintained the small PoPs. Temperatures have remained on track or a degree or two warmer in spots. Waupaca and Wautoma are likely to be the warm spots of the day at 89 degrees. This evening, cu will dissipate and temps will start to drop, but still remain mild overnight with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The surface moisture and light winds may create some patchy ground fog overnight, but this is expected to remain isolated with little impact. High clouds streaming in from the south may move overhead from time to time. For Monday, with little change in the surface features and airmass, expected similar conditions to today. Large-scale forcing remains absent, but diurnally driven cu are likely to develop with a very small chance of showers or thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin. Afternoon high temps will reach the mid to upper 80s, slightly cooler in the 70s near Lake Michigan. Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday Warm and dry weather is expected through the week as an omega blocking pattern emerges across the CONUS. There will be a trough out to the west from the desert southwest to the northern Plains, with a ridge from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, and a trough forming across the middle Atlantic states. The omega block then tilts to the east late in the week into next weekend, allowing the series of mid level disturbances in the trough out to the west to edge towards the western Great Lakes region. The first of these intrusions could bring some light rain to the western portion of central and north-central Wisconsin as early as Friday, with additional disturbances tracking through next weekend. Despite the pattern inching eastward, there are signs that most of the area could stay dry into next weekend as the disturbances will be weak with the best moisture staying off to the west. Therefore, there is a chance most or all of the area could stay dry through next weekend unless the pattern shifts further east. Given the difficulty in disposing of an omega blocking pattern the drier solution seems mostly likely at this point. This pattern should yield warm and dry weather for much of the extended period with highs ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Some shallow ground fog will also be possible as higher dew point air makes its way into the region. Lows will generally be in the 50s with some 60 degree values possible across east-central Wisconsin. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFr flying conditions are expected through the TAF period. Skies will remain clear through the overnight hours but some high clouds may return on Monday. Winds will be fairly light through the TAF period as well, generally staying around 5 knots or less from the south. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....KLJ/Kurimski AVIATION.......Uhlmann