577
FXUS63 KGRB 260344
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1044 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some rivers and streams will remain above bankfull and near
  flood stage into the middle of the week.

- Next period of significant rain and chances for storms arrives
  on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday

Much quieter conditions are expected for the middle of the week as
high pressure begins to build into the region through the rest of
the day today and much of Wednesday. The only interruption may be
a fast moving shortwave, which may bring just enough impetus to
produce a few showers across northern Wisconsin Wednesday morning.
That said, with much drier air moving into the region, would
expect any sprinkles to struggle to reach the surface, so most of
the area will likely remain dry.

Temperatures this afternoon will be the last of the 80s for a
couple of days. High temperatures on Wednesday will likely be in
the 70s as the cooler air under the high pressure arrives.

Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday

The main focus of the extended forecast will be on the next
weather system Friday, which could potentially bring another round
of heavier rainfall.

Cool and dry conditions will persist across the region Wednesday
night through Thursday evening. Attention then turns to the next
active weather system for early Friday as return flow ramps up
once again. The main concern with this system will be the surge of
moisture into the region bringing PWATS to around 2 inches for
much of Friday. As a result, additional heavy rainfall will be
possible, which will keep river running near or above bankfull
through the weekend. Fortunately, the early arrival of the rain
will also help mitigate any instability development, which in turn
should keep severe weather out of the forecast. Any thunder that
does develop in the afternoon may still bring brief flooding
concerns, especially if the heavier rainfall starts trending
further northwards.

Another wide ridge will follow on the heels of this system, which
will bring back dry conditions for most of the weekend along with
cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s through early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few mid and
high clouds will continue to spread across the area, with a thicker
batch of mid and high clouds spreading across the region later
tonight into Wednesday morning. These mid and high clouds will
exit Wednesday morning, but lower cumulus will develop through
the morning and continue into the afternoon. Could get a few
sprinkles or showers from these clouds as a weak boundary drops
through the area, but it appears conditions will stay VFR. Gradual
clearing is expected Wednesday evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Bersch