Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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139 FXUS63 KGRR 231139 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 739 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry and cooler -Strong storms possible late Monday night and Tuesday -Dry Wednesday/Thursday; storm chances return Friday/Saturday && .UPDATE... Issued at 443 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Based on latest wave models, we included the all nearshore zones in the Small Craft Advisory and also extended the Beach Hazards Statement to include Mason and Oceana Counties. The headlines will expire at 5 pm today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 -Dry and cooler Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Traverse City to Chicago. Radar showed rain falling south of I-96 ahead of the front and the back edge of the precipitation moving across the lakeshore. Showers will exit the southeast cwa by 10am leading to dry weather the rest of the day. IR loop shows extensive cloudiness west through Wisconsin and HREF cloud progs point toward cloudy conditions through early afternoon. Late in the day high pressure will nose into the region and we`ll start to see some breaks in the clouds which will set us up for a partly cloudy night. H8 temps will fall to around 10c today which should result in high temperatures in the lower 70s near US-10 to upper 70s near I-94. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will still create humid conditions, but it won`t feel as humid as the last several days. Under partly cloudy skies tonight, temperatures will fall into the 50s...a welcome relief from the very mild mid 70s earlier in the week. High pressure will settle over the region Monday yielding sunny skies, less humid conditions and highs in the lower 80s. -Strong storms possible late Monday night and Tuesday Interesting summertime MCS pattern shaping up for Monday night, with returning H8 20C thermal ridge and 50 kt low level jet aimed into Wisconsin. Guidance indicates nocturnal tstms developing to our northwest once mid level cap breaks then deep layer thickness progs would suggest they`ll propagate southeast our way late at night into early Tuesday, along the incoming instability gradient. Should this develop into a mature MCS, it is possible we could see some damaging winds crossing Lk MI toward dawn Tuesday. Those tstms should weaken/exit by Noon, but new convective development looks possible along the cold front in the late afternoon/evening Tuesday, with guidance currently favoring a west-east oriented cluster of storms near I-94. -Dry Wednesday/Thursday; storm chances return Friday/Saturday We dry out behind the cold front on Wednesday with cooler and drier air flowing in from the north, then high pressure delivers fine weather on Thursday. Guidance has been trending faster in the departure of that sfc high, with tstm chances returning already on Friday as the warm front lifts back north again. Storminess persists into Saturday before the next cold front swings through and dries things out for Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 739 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Cold frontal passage is bringing widespread IFR cigs early this morning along with areas of light rain and drizzle. Conditions gradually improving to MVFR later this morning then lifting to VFR after 18Z. Skies clearing tonight. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 kts today, subsiding below 10 kts after 00Z this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards statement are now in effect until 5 pm and include all nearshore zones and lakeshore counties. 3-5 foot waves are expected until mid afternoon when they will begin to subside. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...04 DISCUSSION...04/Meade AVIATION...Meade MARINE...04