631
FXUS63 KGRR 150700
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
300 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and dry pattern continues

- The dry pattern is forecast to continue into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

- Very warm and dry pattern continues

Fair very warm and dry wx will continue today into early next week
as mid/upper level ridging continues. 00Z HREF cloud cover
guidance suggests that we will only have some sct high cloud cover
today.

High temps today will once again reach well into the 80s even near
the Lake MI shoreline given the east to southeast offshore winds
and slight downslope effects. Mins tonight will mostly be in the
mid to upper 50`s with high temps Monday once again reaching well
into the 80s. An overall consensus blend of latest medium range
guidance continues to suggest that dry wx should continue through
the rest of the week along with a continuation of warm conditions.

- The dry pattern is forecast to continue into next weekend

Based on the ensemble qpf forecasts and latest deterministic model
guidance, it`s still looking dry into next weekend.  However, there
has been a trend toward more moisture advecting in from the east
southeast. PWAT`s are trending up for the middle of the week.  There
has been a slight increase in the ensemble members from the various
models showing qpf in the Tuesday night to Thursday period. Overall
though, most members remain dry. The GFS has been the most aggressive
with the moisture and precipitation risk here in MI, but the
Canadian and ECMWF remain dry. The GFS has not shown good continuity
and there is a lot of spread it`s ensemble precipitation amounts.
For now, we will maintain a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

While patchy fog could form once again toward daybreak, confidence
on it occurring at one of the TAF sites is low at this time. We do
have a little more wind as compared to last night, which may act
to limit the fog potential. Crossover temperatures also don`t
favor widespread fog, but we will maintain monitoring trends
through the night. Dry conditions continue through a deep layer of
the atmosphere today, but near KMKG we`ll see some upper level
clouds rolling in at times. Surface wind gusts could once again
occur this afternoon with values near 15 knots expected. An
onshore wind will likely set up this afternoon, which would impact
the KMKG TAF site.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Minimal wave heights of two feet or less are forecast today into
early next week given weak offshore easterly winds mostly in the 5
to 15 kt range (or less). In fact tranquil conditions on Lake MI
will continue through the upcoming week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJS/Laurens
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Laurens