Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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661 FXUS62 KGSP 160203 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1003 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. The high will linger over the region through much of next week keeping temperatures above normal. Isolated diurnal ridgetop showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Monday. Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 955 PM: Large uncapped SBCAPE remains near the southeast-facing Escarpment at 8 PM with weak easterly flow continuing. No surprise then that weak convection continues to bubble over the mountains and foothills. Some capping does eventually appear on prog soundings as ridge moves overhead, but until then little change in profiles, with enough low level wind to keep PBL mixed. Thus, kept PoPs as-is after earlier updates, as they appear more in line with observations than recent HRRR runs which have trended drier overnight. Outflow from Midlands convection has made it to southern Anderson and Greenville counties and that still could serve as a focus for new development in the next few hours. Still anticipate the sea breeze may reach the I-77 corridor by dawn, although that may be more of interest as a route low cloud cover could develop, so retained increasing sky cover at the end of the night in that area. Looks to become more convectively active across the mtns Sunday as se/ly BL flow develops and upslope enhancement helps produce pulse type storms. Dont anticipate severe level storms as the environ remain neg forced, but a couple cells could reach SPS strength as sbCAPE increases to arnd 1200 J/kg. Lows tonight will remain abv normal with increasing in cloud cover late, while highs Sun return to near normal levels. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Saturday: An upper level anticyclone will be in place across the region through the short range period. On Sunday night and Monday, there will enough moisture and upslope flow to create showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. However, as the anticyclone strengthens, a strong drying trend is expected with Tuesday being an entirely dry day. Highs each day will be 2-3 degrees above climo, generally upper 80s in the Piedmont and mid 80s in the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The strong upper anticyclone will settle over the mid-Atlantic region for the middle to end of next week. This will lead to dry conditions and temperatures just a few degrees above climo. There may be an increase in moisture toward the week of the week leading to a return to a normal diurnal chance of showers and storms. Overall, it will be a pretty quiet period. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated SHRA over the NC mtns or adjacent foothills should gradually diminish diurnally this evening. However, sfc winds are expected to keep the PBL mixed and new development is not entirely out of the question overnight. Winds above the PBL are already SE, which should allow outflows from storms in the SC Midlands to push into the Upstate, and the sea breeze also may reach KCLT before dawn. Any new development should be isolated enough to omit from TAFs. CCLs may lower with an uptick in humidity behind either boundary, so lower VFR to MVFR level clouds remain possible in the predawn hours. Not confident enough to go with restrictive cigs. Still likely too mixed for any fog. SE flow will persist thru Sunday, and with lower LCLs/CCLs chance of diurnal SHRA/TSRA will be a bit better than it was today. Confidence supports VCSH at KAVL in the aftn. Outlook: More moist and generally southerly flow continues into Monday supporting another round of diurnal SHRA/TSRA. Upper anticyclone is likely to result in dry/VFR daytime conditions Tue-Thu, but nocturnal fog/stratus could develop in the early mornings. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SCW NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...Wimberley