Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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252 FXUS62 KGSP 200607 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The limited coverage of any showers and storms on Friday afternoon will be confined to the mountains. Meanwhile, high pressure begins to build into the region from the north and west giving our region a dry weekend. Temperatures will be above normal through the weekend then closer to normal through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 200 am: The last lingering spots of diurnal convection are dissipating across the southern NC foothills early this morning. Low stratus along with areas of fog is already widespread in the mountain valleys, with some dense fog occurring in the Little Tennessee basin. Will probably see some dense fog develop elsewhere throughout the morning, but should remain too limited in coverage to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. Min temps are expected to be a category or so above normal. Drier conditions are expected later today with less cloud cover as deep subsidence increases from the west and high pressure dominates at the sfc. There may be some limited convective activity across the mtns due to ridge top convergence, but coverage of precip will be low-end due to the aforementioned subs and midlevel warming. Highs will likely reach a couple cats above normal across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: Upper ridge will be dominating the Southern Plains as we move into the short term, with trough in place over the East Coast. With heights rising through the period, increasing subsidence will generally keep pops out of the forecast, but a weak shortwave moving down the northerly flow aloft may bring just a bit of moisture to the area briefly Saturday night, so cannot rule out some showery activity in the NW NC Piedmont. Bigger story will be the temperatures increasing through the period, with temperatures trending upwards both Saturday and Sunday, uncomfortably unseasonably warm with highs approaching mid 90s in the Upper Savannah by Sunday afternoon as the upper ridge axis pushes closer to us and the upper trough begins to lift out. Elevated dewpoints underneath the increased ridging aloft will keep overnight lows a couple of degrees above normal as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: The upper ridge will continue to push east as we move into the extended, eventually flattening and shifting slightly south as a mid-level low works its way out of the Rockies and across the Northern Plains. A stronger system passing across southern Canada will drag a cold front across the Great Lakes on Sunday, approaching the OH Valley late in the weekend and eventually toward the Southern Appalachians as we begin the new work week, bringing a return of pops to the mountains. Timing this far out is uncertain, and the first round of precip may dry up before the secondary round associate with the Northern Plains wave moves in Tue-Wed. High temperatures will be knocked back down closer to seasonal normals with the increasing clouds and precipitation, though increasing moisture will keep overnight lows above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Fog and/or low stratus is already becoming widespread in the mountain valleys early this morning, and LIFR is expected to continue until after sunrise at KAVL, with brief periods of VLIFR also possible. Periodic IFR, w/ possible LIFR/brief VLIFR is also expected to continue at KHKY until 13Z or so. Tempo IFR cigs are forecast at KCLT toward sunrise, but only brief periods of MVFR are expected at the other sites. All restrictions will lift by 15Z. Winds will be very light through the period...possibly favoring a NE direction later this morning, then E/SE during the afternoon. A few showers, possibly a TSRA or two are expected to develop again this afternoon/evening, but chances for a direct hit at any TAF sites is at most 20%, so no mention is warranted at this time. Outlook: No appreciable return of moisture or precip chances expected until early to middle of next week. Daybreak restrictions could recur each morning especially in mountain valleys. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK/Wimberley SHORT TERM...TDP LONG TERM...TDP AVIATION...JDL