436
FXPQ50 PGUM 211953
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
553 AM ChST Sat Jun 22 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers are seen across Guam, with
partly cloudy skies and isolated showers over the CNMI. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the region. Ritidian buoy shows seas
between 2 and 3 feet, while altimetry shows seas between 2 and 5
feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Only minor changes to the previous forecast. Extended scattered
showers over Guam through mid morning today, with only a slight
chance of thunderstorms. A surface trough is exiting the region to
the southwest of Guam, so expect showers to decrease through the
early morning hours. Guam does lie just north of an upper-level
ridge, putting weak diffluence over the island. Therefore, a slight
risk of thunderstorms does remain over the area. Otherwise, the
forecast remains unchanged through the end of next week.

&&

.Marine...
Gentle to moderate winds are expected into next week, with combined
seas of 3 to 5 feet. Some fresh to strong gusts are possible near
heavier showers in Guam waters today. Winds increase to moderate to
fresh Monday. Seas build to between 5 and 7 feet by Monday night and
continue through at least the middle of next week as a surge in trade
winds and trade swell push through.

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist along east facing reefs
while remaining low along all other reefs. Surf is expected to rise
1 to 2 feet along north and east facing reefs through Monday night.
This could increase the rip current risk to moderate along north
facing reefs Monday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Latest satellite shows a fragmented ITCZ producing spotty showers across
the region with deeper convection headed towards Kosrae. Southeast
of Pohnpei surface winds are converging with some showers seen
developing southeast of Pohnpei with that system. Scattered showers
are expected for all forecast areas with heavier showers expected at
Kosrae today. After today expect the ITCZ to weaken and become more
fragmented. This should bring mostly isolated showers to the region
tomorrow. Monday, a trough is expected to bring scattered showers to
Majuro, then to Kosrae and Pohnpei Tuesday and Wednesday.

Altimetry showed combined seas between 3 and 5 feet. Gentle to
moderate trades and benign seas are expected to continue through the
middle of next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A weak trough is seen approaching Koror from the east which should
give them scattered showers today. Farther west, deeper convective
activity is seen along a boundary of easterly winds converging with
southerly winds. For Yap, expect mostly cloudy with isolated showers
and thunderstorms today, then scattered showers tonight. For Chuuk,
isolated showers today and tonight. Shower potential for all forecast
areas look to increase Sunday as trade winds converge, then again
mid week.

Altimetry showed combined seas between 2 and 4 feet near Chuuk, and
Palau and Yap buoys reported around 2 to 3 feet. Gentle to moderate
trades and benign seas are expected to continue through the middle of
next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Kleeschulte
Micronesia: Hong